TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13104230
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811911117119116
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jan Lovl at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 2–1 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Lovl beat Chmelicek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:10What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1521 vs Chmelicek 1336
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 186 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 20% vs Chmelicek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 40% vs Chmelicek 20%
Lovl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl -1 · Chmelicek -4
Chmelicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 1.44 / Chmelicek 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Lovl)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13104230
Lovl1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 67 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Chmelicek2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 59 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLovl2wins
AwayChmelicek1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderLovl leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovl66.7%2 of 3
AwayChmelicekn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl3Chmelicek0n = 3Lovl took 3 of 3
S2Lovl1Chmelicek2n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
S3Lovl2Chmelicek1n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
S4Lovl2Chmelicek1n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLovlChmelicekL − CBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match42.040.3+1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 332 vs 222 / 47151.5%47.1%171 / 332 vs 222 / 471Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlLovl 1.44/Chmelicek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 9 · 11:35J. Lovl—11913123M. Chmelicek—61111101
WJun 30 · 14:05J. Lovl—11119113M. Chmelicek—781181
LFeb 20 · 13:05J. Lovl—11411672M. Chmelicek—911711113
J. Lovl10
LSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320WSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113LSep 8 · 13:34R. Fitl1.80114911113J. Lovl1.9161111672LSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871WSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113WSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592LSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113
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