TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13102721
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161012115119––
Matyas Rojka
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatyas Rojka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Matyas Rojka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Matyas Rojka at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 11–7 Matyas Rojka Matyas Rojka has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rojka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Chmelicek
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1330 vs Rojka 1369
Rojka
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 0% vs Rojka 80%
Rojka
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 20% vs Rojka 50%
Rojka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -5 · Rojka +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rojka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rojka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 2.00 / Rojka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rojka)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13102721
Chmelicek2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 59 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Rojka1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 25 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek6wins
AwayRojka4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek66.7%4 of 6
AwayRojka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek6Rojka4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek6Rojka4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S3Chmelicek4Rojka6n = 10Rojka took 6 of 10
S4Chmelicek2Rojka6n = 8Rojka took 6 of 8
S5Chmelicek4Rojka1n = 5Chmelicek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekRojkaC − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.042.1−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekRojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 472 vs 95 / 19847%48%222 / 472 vs 95 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RojkaChmelicek 2.00/Rojka 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Rojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—11118153M. Rojka—6411131
LSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek—111281072M. Rojka—5101112113
WJun 26 · 13:05M. Chmelicek—991111113M. Rojka—11116992
LJun 26 · 10:35M. Chmelicek—6910M. Rojka—1111113
LJun 26 · 08:35M. Chmelicek—12101061M. Rojka—101212113
WJun 17 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—118115113M. Rojka—71191192
LJun 15 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—3139101M. Rojka—111111123
WJun 11 · 21:50M. Chmelicek—1413113M. Rojka—121160
WJun 11 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—111167123M. Rojka—571111102
WJun 3 · 21:05M. Chmelicek—311118133M. Rojka—118811112
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113LSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592LSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133
M. Rojka10
LSep 9 · 15:05P. Pesout2.101311911133M. Rojka1.67156119112WSep 7 · 21:45M. Rojka2.011112113J. Martin1.6641070WSep 7 · 20:35J. Hajek1.57311111452M. Rojka2.251113612113WSep 7 · 19:35M. Rojka2.201114113T. Krcil1.6161280WSep 7 · 18:05J. Martin1.288470M. Rojka3.501111113LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282
Upcoming Matches
M. Chmelicek
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M. Rojka
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