TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13105473
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181191719117––
Petr Pesout
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 17-19
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 93 set 4, 11-7
93 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 11–10 Petr Pesout Petr Pesout has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Chmelicek beat Pesout 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.73 / Pesout 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmelicek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13105473
Chmelicek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 66 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it67% 53 of 79
Pesout2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayPesout7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPesout leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek66.7%2 of 3
AwayPesout85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek3Pesout7n = 10Pesout took 7 of 10
S2Chmelicek6Pesout4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S3Chmelicek2Pesout8n = 10Pesout took 8 of 10
S4Chmelicek1Pesout6n = 7Pesout took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekPesoutC − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.837.9−2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 475 vs 152 / 32647.4%46.6%225 / 475 vs 152 / 326Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.73/Pesout 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 16:05M. Chmelicek—1111113P. Pesout—9390
LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek—911941P. Pesout—11711113
WAug 30 · 17:35M. Chmelicek—811611113P. Pesout—11511852
WAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek—121188113P. Pesout—103111182
LAug 29 · 16:05M. Chmelicek—914791P. Pesout—111211113
LJul 19 · 09:34M. Chmelicek—791181P. Pesout—11117113
LJul 19 · 06:35M. Chmelicek—9780P. Pesout—1111113
LJul 18 · 13:05M. Chmelicek—1011861P. Pesout—12911113
LJul 18 · 12:35M. Chmelicek—6990P. Pesout—1111113
LJun 14 · 09:35M. Chmelicek—11511111P. Pesout—41113133
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113WSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591LSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592LSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153
P. Pesout10
LSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:05P. Pesout2.101311911133M. Rojka1.67156119112WSep 9 · 14:05P. Pesout2.00111112113T. Motacek1.73981481LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113
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