TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13118415
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomas Motacek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117611119611511
Jan Manhal Jr
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:23 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeJan Manhal Jr to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Jan Manhal Jr below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jan Manhal Jr at 54.3%
88 points played in total.
The pickContradict
Sealed 02:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1397 vs Jr 1427
Jr
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 40% vs Jr 20%
Motacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 60% vs Jr 30%
Motacek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek -1 · Jr -4
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 2.00 / Jr 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Jr)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13118415
Motacek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog67% won 8 of 12
Jr1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 10 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekJrBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 25 vs 17 / 4352%39.5%13 / 25 vs 17 / 43Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrMotacek 2.00/Jr 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
T. Motacek10
LSep 12 · 10:05K. Lahodny1.731111123T. Motacek2.0085100WSep 9 · 17:05T. Motacek1.501111113M. Rojka2.505780WSep 9 · 16:35M. Rojka1.732740T. Motacek2.001111113LSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113LSep 9 · 14:05P. Pesout2.00111112113T. Motacek1.73981481WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101WSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113
J. Jr10
LSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113LSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350LSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.44111111113J. Jr2.63139891WSep 12 · 06:35R. Fitl1.7377111162J. Jr2.00111183113LSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110LSep 11 · 16:05J. Jr2.2011511972J. Martin1.61711911113LSep 11 · 15:05J. Jr2.1011581462L. Vosyka1.678111112113WSep 11 · 14:05J. Jr1.3691111113O. Pros3.00116551WSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113
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