TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13105291
Played Sep 9Finished
Tomas Motacek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117118––––
Matyas Rojka
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:02 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Matyas Rojka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 57.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 1–0 Matyas Rojka Matyas Rojka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Motacek beat Rojka 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:02What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Motacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1409 vs Rojka 1325
Motacek
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 60% vs Rojka 40%
Motacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 70% vs Rojka 40%
Motacek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek +1 · Rojka -3
Rojka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Motacek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.50 / Rojka 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Motacek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13105291
Motacek1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Rojka2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 21 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back28% 10 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back17% 3 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMotacek1wins
AwayRojka0wins
Motacek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMotacekRojkaM − RBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.013.0+20.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekRojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime12 / 23 vs 95 / 20152.2%47.3%12 / 23 vs 95 / 201Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekMotacek 1.50/Rojka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 9 · 16:35T. Motacek—1111113M. Rojka—2740
T. Motacek10
WSep 9 · 16:35M. Rojka1.732740T. Motacek2.001111113LSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113LSep 9 · 14:05P. Pesout2.00111112113T. Motacek1.73981481WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101WSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113WSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123WSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113
M. Rojka10
LSep 9 · 16:35M. Rojka1.732740T. Motacek2.001111113LSep 9 · 15:05P. Pesout2.101311911133M. Rojka1.67156119112LSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591WSep 7 · 21:45M. Rojka2.011112113J. Martin1.6641070WSep 7 · 20:35J. Hajek1.57311111452M. Rojka2.251113612113WSep 7 · 19:35M. Rojka2.201114113T. Krcil1.6161280WSep 7 · 18:05J. Martin1.288470M. Rojka3.501111113LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153
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