TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117323
Played Sep 12Finished
Jan Manhal Jr
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611811––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:03 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Manhal Jr above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 60.8%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jan Manhal Jr 1–0 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:03What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jr 1446 vs Chmelicek 1368
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Chmelicek 80%
Chmelicek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Chmelicek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -3 · Chmelicek +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.73 / Chmelicek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13117323
Jr1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 10 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Chmelicek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 60 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeJr1wins
AwayChmelicek0wins
Jr leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricJrChmelicekJ − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.017.0+16.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 42 vs 226 / 47640.5%47.5%17 / 42 vs 226 / 476Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.73/Chmelicek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 17 · 15:35J. Jr—1111113M. Chmelicek—6560
J. Jr10
LSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350LSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.44111111113J. Jr2.63139891WSep 12 · 06:35R. Fitl1.7377111162J. Jr2.00111183113LSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110LSep 11 · 16:05J. Jr2.2011511972J. Martin1.61711911113LSep 11 · 15:05J. Jr2.1011581462L. Vosyka1.678111112113WSep 11 · 14:05J. Jr1.3691111113O. Pros3.00116551WSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113WSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971WSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113WSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591LSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592LSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113
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