TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13116789
Played Sep 12Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711711118113611
Jan Manhal Jr
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Jan Manhal Jr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 86 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Radek Fitl at 55.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 3–3 Jan Manhal Jr Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:56What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fitl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1613 vs Jr 1473
Fitl
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 50% vs Jr 30%
Fitl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl -3 · Jr -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.73 / Jr 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Fitl)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13116789
Fitl1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 87 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it79% 66 of 84
Jr2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 6 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeFitl3wins
AwayJr3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl75%3 of 4
AwayJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl4Jr2n = 6Fitl took 4 of 6
S2Fitl2Jr4n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
S3Fitl4Jr2n = 6Fitl took 4 of 6
S4Fitl2Jr3n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricFitlJrF − JBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match41.338.8+2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlJrBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 362 vs 17 / 4053.3%42.5%193 / 362 vs 17 / 40Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFitl 1.73/Jr 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 12 · 06:35R. Fitl—77111162J. Jr—111183113
LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl—1191071J. Jr—91112113
WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl—1114173J. Jr—812150
WAug 24 · 17:18R. Fitl—118119113J. Jr—61161182
LAug 24 · 15:35R. Fitl—8111061J. Jr—11212113
WAug 6 · 14:35R. Fitl—11911113J. Jr—611971
R. Fitl10
WSep 12 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.736101111122R. Fitl2.00111267143WSep 12 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38117118162R. Fitl1.53711611183LSep 11 · 13:10R. Fitl1.67111011992R. Fnukal2.10912711113LSep 11 · 12:35R. Fitl1.73551191J. Lovl2.0011117113LSep 11 · 11:05R. Neterda2.009111111113R. Fitl1.7311137662WSep 11 · 10:35R. Fnukal1.836113111R. Fitl1.8311611133WSep 10 · 13:10M. Holub2.00811111162R. Fitl1.73111398113WSep 10 · 12:35R. Vosyka1.83611471R. Fitl1.8311711113LSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123LSep 10 · 10:05M. Holub2.00111198113R. Fitl1.7377111172
J. Jr10
LSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.44111111113J. Jr2.63139891LSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110LSep 11 · 16:05J. Jr2.2011511972J. Martin1.61711911113LSep 11 · 15:05J. Jr2.1011581462L. Vosyka1.678111112113WSep 11 · 14:05J. Jr1.3691111113O. Pros3.00116551WSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113WSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110LSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150LAug 24 · 17:18J. Jr1.8361161182R. Fitl1.83118119113
Upcoming Matches
R. Fitl
Nothing scheduled
J. Jr
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