TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117711
Played Sep 12Finished
Richard Vavricka
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1177111168111618
Radek Fitl
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:55 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 16-18
Point 106 set 5, 16-18 — our read held Radek Fitl at 65.3%
106 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 5–7 Radek Fitl Richard Vavricka has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:55What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Fitl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Fitl
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1481 vs Fitl 1613
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 80% vs Fitl 20%
Vavricka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 60% vs Fitl 40%
Vavricka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka -1 · Fitl -4
Fitl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 2.38 / Fitl 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Fitl)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13117711
Vavricka2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back35% 13 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Fitl1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 87 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it79% 66 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavricka4wins
AwayFitl6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFitl leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavricka66.7%4 of 6
AwayFitl100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka6Fitl4n = 10Vavricka took 6 of 10
S2Vavricka5Fitl5n = 10split evenly
S3Vavricka7Fitl3n = 10Vavricka took 7 of 10
S4Vavricka2Fitl5n = 7Fitl took 5 of 7
S5Vavricka0Fitl3n = 3Fitl took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavrickaFitlV − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.138.6+0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 210 vs 193 / 36251.4%53.3%108 / 210 vs 193 / 362Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlVavricka 2.38/Fitl 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 07:35R. Vavricka—117118162R. Fitl—711611183
LSep 8 · 11:05R. Vavricka—11711842R. Fitl—711911113
LSep 7 · 12:35R. Vavricka—611111182R. Fitl—115413113
LSep 5 · 19:05R. Vavricka—3101771R. Fitl—111215113
LAug 15 · 11:35R. Vavricka—81180R. Fitl—1113113
WAug 15 · 09:40R. Vavricka—1111113R. Fitl—9970
LAug 15 · 06:05R. Vavricka—651171R. Fitl—11117113
WJun 20 · 20:05R. Vavricka—11119113R. Fitl—891161
WMay 16 · 19:05R. Vavricka—111116113R. Fitl—981861
WMay 7 · 21:10R. Vavricka—1111113R. Fitl—5830
R. Vavricka10
WSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.53111147113R. Vavricka2.3875111152WSep 9 · 13:45R. Vavricka2.14714128113R. Neterda1.581112101152WSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592WSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113WSep 8 · 13:05R. Vavricka1.531111113O. Pros2.386390WSep 8 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.5711311113O. Pros2.25711791LSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842LSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751
R. Fitl10
WSep 12 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.736101111122R. Fitl2.00111267143LSep 12 · 06:35R. Fitl1.7377111162J. Jr2.00111183113LSep 11 · 13:10R. Fitl1.67111011992R. Fnukal2.10912711113LSep 11 · 12:35R. Fitl1.73551191J. Lovl2.0011117113LSep 11 · 11:05R. Neterda2.009111111113R. Fitl1.7311137662WSep 11 · 10:35R. Fnukal1.836113111R. Fitl1.8311611133WSep 10 · 13:10M. Holub2.00811111162R. Fitl1.73111398113WSep 10 · 12:35R. Vosyka1.83611471R. Fitl1.8311711113LSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123WSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842
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