TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13104229
Played Sep 9Finished
Richard Vavricka
Home
2.14
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71114121210811115
Radek Neterda
Away
1.58
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 101 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 4–9 Radek Neterda Richard Vavricka has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Vavricka beat Neterda 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:09What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Neterda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Neterda
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1484 vs Neterda 1467
Vavricka
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 100% vs Neterda 40%
Vavricka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 50% vs Neterda 30%
Vavricka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka +5 · Neterda +1
Vavricka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (40%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 2.14 / Neterda 1.58
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Neterda)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13104229
Vavricka2.14
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 24 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Neterda1.58
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 56 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it72% 39 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavricka4wins
AwayNeterda6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavricka75%3 of 4
AwayNeterda83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka4Neterda6n = 10Neterda took 6 of 10
S2Vavricka5Neterda5n = 10split evenly
S3Vavricka2Neterda8n = 10Neterda took 8 of 10
S4Vavricka3Neterda5n = 8Neterda took 5 of 8
S5Vavricka3Neterda0n = 3Vavricka took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavrickaNeterdaV − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.1−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 207 vs 201 / 39951.7%50.4%107 / 207 vs 201 / 399Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaVavricka 2.14/Neterda 1.58
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.1%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vavricka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 11:05R. Vavricka—1111113R. Neterda—7970
LSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka—711691R. Neterda—11411113
LJul 26 · 20:05R. Vavricka—51010R. Neterda—1112113
LJun 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka—1191291R. Neterda—71114113
WMay 16 · 17:05R. Vavricka—1110411113R. Neterda—81211962
LMay 16 · 14:05R. Vavricka—1071181R. Neterda—12119113
LApr 5 · 14:35R. Vavricka—911941R. Neterda—11611113
WFeb 28 · 22:15R. Vavricka—911711113R. Neterda—11611352
LFeb 28 · 21:05R. Vavricka—911891R. Neterda—11611113
WJan 23 · 22:10R. Vavricka—12101011123R. Neterda—1012127102
R. Vavricka10
WSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592WSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113WSep 8 · 13:05R. Vavricka1.531111113O. Pros2.386390WSep 8 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.5711311113O. Pros2.25711791LSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842LSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113LSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182LSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113
R. Neterda10
WSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320LSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570LSep 8 · 21:03J. Vidourek2.0081111113R. Neterda1.73116551LSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:05R. Neterda1.618119101J. Vidourek2.2011611123LSep 8 · 18:05R. Neterda1.73811811L. Vosyka2.0011911113LSep 7 · 13:43R. Neterda1.67131311392R. Fitl2.101115911113LSep 7 · 12:05M. Holub1.839111111113R. Neterda1.8311713482WSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113
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