TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111611
Played Sep 11Finished
Radek Fnukal
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111163111113––
Radek Fitl
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:34 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Fnukal above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 72 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Radek Fitl at 57.2%
72 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fnukal 4–5 Radek Fitl Radek Fnukal has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:34What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Fitl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fnukal 1536 vs Fitl 1660
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fnukal 40% vs Fitl 60%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fnukal 40% vs Fitl 80%
Fitl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fnukal -2 · Fitl +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fnukal form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFnukal 1.83 / Fitl 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fitl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13111611
Fnukal1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Fitl1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeFnukal4wins
AwayFitl5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderFitl leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFnukal33.3%1 of 3
AwayFitl50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fnukal3Fitl6n = 9Fitl took 6 of 9
S2Fnukal5Fitl4n = 9Fnukal took 5 of 9
S3Fnukal7Fitl2n = 9Fnukal took 7 of 9
S4Fnukal4Fitl4n = 8split evenly
S5Fnukal1Fitl3n = 4Fitl took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricFnukalFitlFnukal − FitlBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match43.644.1−0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFnukalFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 130 vs 190 / 35549.2%53.5%64 / 130 vs 190 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFnukal 1.83/Fitl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 7 · 17:40R. Fnukal—1011813102R. Fitl—1261111123
LSep 7 · 16:05R. Fnukal—16611562R. Fitl—1411411113
LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fnukal—97151172R. Fitl—1111139113
WAug 14 · 13:04R. Fnukal—111111113R. Fitl—135991
LAug 14 · 10:35R. Fnukal—6141181R. Fitl—11167113
WJul 26 · 17:15R. Fnukal—512118133R. Fitl—1110711112
WJul 26 · 14:35R. Fnukal—1112113R. Fitl—71090
LJul 26 · 10:05R. Fnukal—116861R. Fitl—81111113
WJul 19 · 16:35R. Fnukal—91111193R. Fitl—1194171
R. Fnukal10
WSep 11 · 13:10R. Fitl1.67111011992R. Fnukal2.10912711113LSep 11 · 12:05R. Neterda2.20771111113R. Fnukal1.6111114882WSep 11 · 11:35J. Lovl2.63612111172R. Fnukal1.44111473113LSep 7 · 17:40R. Fitl1.911261111123R. Fnukal1.801011813102LSep 7 · 16:05R. Fnukal1.7316611562R. Fitl2.001411411113WSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870WSep 7 · 14:05R. Fnukal1.831111119113L. Vosyka1.8351381162LSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113
R. Fitl10
LSep 11 · 13:10R. Fitl1.67111011992R. Fnukal2.10912711113LSep 11 · 12:35R. Fitl1.73551191J. Lovl2.0011117113LSep 11 · 11:05R. Neterda2.009111111113R. Fitl1.7311137662WSep 10 · 13:10M. Holub2.00811111162R. Fitl1.73111398113WSep 10 · 12:35R. Vosyka1.83611471R. Fitl1.8311711113LSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123LSep 10 · 10:05M. Holub2.00111198113R. Fitl1.7377111172WSep 7 · 17:40R. Fitl1.911261111123R. Fnukal1.801011813102WSep 7 · 16:05R. Fnukal1.7316611562R. Fitl2.001411411113WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172
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