TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112440
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111214117113711
Radek Fnukal
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:43 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Fnukal to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Radek Fnukal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Radek Fnukal at 62.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 8–13 Radek Fnukal Jan Lovl has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Fnukal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-13 in 21
Fnukal
Correct
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1535 vs Fnukal 1528
Lovl
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 60% vs Fnukal 40%
Lovl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 50% vs Fnukal 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl +2 · Fnukal -3
Fnukal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Fnukal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fnukal form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 2.63 / Fnukal 1.44
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Fnukal)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13112440
Lovl2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 24 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Fnukal1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 24 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it59% 13 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLovl5wins
AwayFnukal5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovl66.7%2 of 3
AwayFnukal57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl3Fnukal7n = 10Fnukal took 7 of 10
S2Lovl5Fnukal5n = 10split evenly
S3Lovl5Fnukal5n = 10split evenly
S4Lovl4Fnukal3n = 7Lovl took 4 of 7
S5Lovl3Fnukal2n = 5Lovl took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLovlFnukalL − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.741.3−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlFnukalBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 334 vs 64 / 13151.8%48.9%173 / 334 vs 64 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FnukalLovl 2.63/Fnukal 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Fnukal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fnukal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 14:35J. Lovl—811415133R. Fnukal—1191113112
WAug 14 · 11:35J. Lovl—11216113R. Fnukal—7111481
LAug 9 · 16:05J. Lovl—1371191R. Fnukal—15116113
LAug 2 · 17:34J. Lovl—11119962R. Fnukal—871111113
LAug 2 · 14:35J. Lovl—101151182R. Fnukal—124119113
WJul 19 · 15:35J. Lovl—614118113R. Fnukal—111291192
LJun 28 · 11:35J. Lovl—4260R. Fnukal—1111113
WJun 5 · 13:15J. Lovl—1112113R. Fnukal—61080
LJun 5 · 12:35J. Lovl—7880R. Fnukal—1111113
WJun 3 · 13:05J. Lovl—671111113R. Fnukal—11117722
J. Lovl10
WSep 11 · 12:35R. Fitl1.73551191J. Lovl2.0011117113WSep 11 · 10:05R. Neterda2.00771211102J. Lovl1.731111101123WSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320WSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113LSep 8 · 13:34R. Fitl1.80114911113J. Lovl1.9161111672LSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871WSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113WSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751
R. Fnukal10
WSep 11 · 13:10R. Fitl1.67111011992R. Fnukal2.10912711113LSep 11 · 12:05R. Neterda2.20771111113R. Fnukal1.6111114882LSep 11 · 10:35R. Fnukal1.836113111R. Fitl1.8311611133LSep 7 · 17:40R. Fitl1.911261111123R. Fnukal1.801011813102LSep 7 · 16:05R. Fnukal1.7316611562R. Fitl2.001411411113WSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870WSep 7 · 14:05R. Fnukal1.831111119113L. Vosyka1.8351381162LSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113
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