TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112518
Played Sep 11Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711711114118118
Radek Fnukal
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:13 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeRadek Fnukal to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Radek Fnukal below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Radek Fnukal at 55.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 1–2 Radek Fnukal Radek Neterda has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:13What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Fnukal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1465 vs Fnukal 1528
Fnukal
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 40% vs Fnukal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 30% vs Fnukal 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda +1 · Fnukal -3
Fnukal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Fnukal) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fnukal form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 2.20 / Fnukal 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Fnukal)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13112518
Neterda2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 41 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Fnukal1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 24 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it59% 13 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeNeterda1wins
AwayFnukal2wins
3 of 3 to a deciderFnukal leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda2Fnukal1n = 3Neterda took 2 of 3
S2Neterda3Fnukal0n = 3Neterda took 3 of 3
S3Neterda0Fnukal3n = 3Fnukal took 3 of 3
S4Neterda1Fnukal2n = 3Fnukal took 2 of 3
S5Neterda1Fnukal2n = 3Fnukal took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricNeterdaFnukalN − FBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match44.048.3−4.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaFnukalBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 402 vs 64 / 13150.3%48.9%202 / 402 vs 64 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FnukalNeterda 2.20/Fnukal 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Fnukal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 26 · 16:05R. Neterda—4121013113R. Fnukal—1110121182
LMay 10 · 11:35R. Neterda—11119432R. Fnukal—841111113
LApr 10 · 11:35R. Neterda—11115982R. Fnukal—961111113
R. Neterda10
WSep 11 · 11:05R. Neterda2.009111111113R. Fitl1.7311137662LSep 11 · 10:05R. Neterda2.00771211102J. Lovl1.731111101123LSep 9 · 13:45R. Vavricka2.14714128113R. Neterda1.581112101152WSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320LSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570LSep 8 · 21:03J. Vidourek2.0081111113R. Neterda1.73116551LSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:05R. Neterda1.618119101J. Vidourek2.2011611123LSep 8 · 18:05R. Neterda1.73811811L. Vosyka2.0011911113
R. Fnukal10
WSep 11 · 13:10R. Fitl1.67111011992R. Fnukal2.10912711113WSep 11 · 11:35J. Lovl2.63612111172R. Fnukal1.44111473113LSep 11 · 10:35R. Fnukal1.836113111R. Fitl1.8311611133LSep 7 · 17:40R. Fitl1.911261111123R. Fnukal1.801011813102LSep 7 · 16:05R. Fnukal1.7316611562R. Fitl2.001411411113WSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870WSep 7 · 14:05R. Fnukal1.831111119113L. Vosyka1.8351381162LSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113
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