TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13116652
Played Sep 12Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117115411711115
Richard Vavricka
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 83 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 63.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 7–1 Richard Vavricka Richard Vavricka has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1673 vs Vavricka 1481
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 193 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 80% vs Vavricka 100%
Vavricka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 60% vs Vavricka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +3 · Vavricka +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.53 / Vavricka 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Ruzicka)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13116652
Ruzicka1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 84 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it84% 67 of 80
Vavricka2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back35% 13 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeRuzicka7wins
AwayVavricka1wins
4 of 8 to a deciderRuzicka leads 7–1, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka83.3%5 of 6
AwayVavrickan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka6Vavricka2n = 8Ruzicka took 6 of 8
S2Ruzicka5Vavricka3n = 8Ruzicka took 5 of 8
S3Ruzicka5Vavricka3n = 8Ruzicka took 5 of 8
S4Ruzicka4Vavricka3n = 7Ruzicka took 4 of 7
S5Ruzicka3Vavricka1n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricRuzickaVavrickaR − VBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match44.035.8+8.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 423 vs 108 / 21052.3%51.4%221 / 423 vs 108 / 210Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.53/Vavricka 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 12 · 06:05J. Ruzicka—111147113R. Vavricka—75111152
WAug 23 · 06:05J. Ruzicka—1211113R. Vavricka—10770
WMay 31 · 13:10J. Ruzicka—11118123R. Vavricka—8711101
WMay 31 · 12:35J. Ruzicka—116911113R. Vavricka—61111542
LApr 3 · 21:40J. Ruzicka—11911882R. Vavricka—311711113
WApr 3 · 19:05J. Ruzicka—118139113R. Vavricka—311111162
WMar 27 · 22:10J. Ruzicka—111111113R. Vavricka—138491
WMar 27 · 21:35J. Ruzicka—81111113R. Vavricka—116681
J. Ruzicka10
LSep 12 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.736101111122R. Fitl2.00111267143WSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.44111111113J. Jr2.63139891WSep 10 · 13:38R. Vosyka1.578480J. Ruzicka2.251111113WSep 10 · 12:05M. Holub1.7341113182J. Ruzicka2.001181111113WSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123LSep 10 · 10:35J. Ruzicka2.105480R. Vosyka1.661111113WSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472LSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143WSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670
R. Vavricka10
LSep 12 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38117118162R. Fitl1.53711611183WSep 9 · 13:45R. Vavricka2.14714128113R. Neterda1.581112101152WSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592WSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113WSep 8 · 13:05R. Vavricka1.531111113O. Pros2.386390WSep 8 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.5711311113O. Pros2.25711791LSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842LSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113
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