TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13118131
Played Sep 12Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61110121161171214
Radek Fitl
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 100 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Radek Fitl at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 8–7 Radek Fitl Radek Fitl has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:53What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1701 vs Fitl 1585
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 100% vs Fitl 20%
Ruzicka
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 80% vs Fitl 40%
Ruzicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +5 · Fitl +1
Ruzicka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.73 / Fitl 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ruzicka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13118131
Ruzicka1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 84 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it84% 67 of 80
Fitl2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 61 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back25% 18 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka4wins
AwayFitl6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFitl leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka75%3 of 4
AwayFitl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka4Fitl6n = 10Fitl took 6 of 10
S2Ruzicka3Fitl7n = 10Fitl took 7 of 10
S3Ruzicka4Fitl6n = 10Fitl took 6 of 10
S4Ruzicka3Fitl1n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaFitlR − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.536.7−3.2per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 422 vs 192 / 36152.4%53.2%221 / 422 vs 192 / 361Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.73/Fitl 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 11:35J. Ruzicka—111111123R. Fitl—1358101
WAug 20 · 14:35J. Ruzicka—113612113R. Fitl—811111092
LAug 11 · 18:35J. Ruzicka—4590R. Fitl—1111113
LAug 6 · 16:05J. Ruzicka—1411101182R. Fitl—1213129113
LAug 4 · 20:05J. Ruzicka—41180R. Fitl—1113113
WAug 2 · 09:43J. Ruzicka—1114113R. Fitl—61250
LAug 2 · 08:05J. Ruzicka—8880R. Fitl—1111113
LAug 1 · 06:05J. Ruzicka—91260R. Fitl—1114113
LJul 28 · 13:44J. Ruzicka—961151R. Fitl—11119113
WJul 28 · 11:05J. Ruzicka—1111123R. Fitl—58100
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.44111111113J. Jr2.63139891WSep 12 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.53111147113R. Vavricka2.3875111152WSep 10 · 13:38R. Vosyka1.578480J. Ruzicka2.251111113WSep 10 · 12:05M. Holub1.7341113182J. Ruzicka2.001181111113WSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123LSep 10 · 10:35J. Ruzicka2.105480R. Vosyka1.661111113WSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472LSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143WSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670
R. Fitl10
WSep 12 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38117118162R. Fitl1.53711611183LSep 12 · 06:35R. Fitl1.7377111162J. Jr2.00111183113LSep 11 · 13:10R. Fitl1.67111011992R. Fnukal2.10912711113LSep 11 · 12:35R. Fitl1.73551191J. Lovl2.0011117113LSep 11 · 11:05R. Neterda2.009111111113R. Fitl1.7311137662WSep 11 · 10:35R. Fnukal1.836113111R. Fitl1.8311611133WSep 10 · 13:10M. Holub2.00811111162R. Fitl1.73111398113WSep 10 · 12:35R. Vosyka1.83611471R. Fitl1.8311711113LSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123LSep 10 · 10:05M. Holub2.00111198113R. Fitl1.7377111172
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