TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13115082
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210611511114811
Radek Neterda
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:13 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jan Lovl at 61.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 21–7 Radek Neterda Radek Neterda has won 7 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Lovl beat Neterda 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:13What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lovl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-7 in 28
Lovl
Wrong
gap of 14 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1555 vs Neterda 1478
Lovl
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 60% vs Neterda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 50% vs Neterda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl +1 · Neterda +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 1.53 / Neterda 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Lovl)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13115082
Lovl1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it76% 54 of 71
Neterda2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 41 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLovl7wins
AwayNeterda3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLovl leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovl100%6 of 6
AwayNeterda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl6Neterda4n = 10Lovl took 6 of 10
S2Lovl8Neterda2n = 10Lovl took 8 of 10
S3Lovl5Neterda5n = 10split evenly
S4Lovl1Neterda5n = 6Neterda took 5 of 6
S5Lovl4Neterda1n = 5Lovl took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLovlNeterdaL − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.834.9+3.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 336 vs 203 / 40351.8%50.4%174 / 336 vs 203 / 403Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlLovl 1.53/Neterda 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 10:05J. Lovl—1111101123R. Neterda—771211102
LSep 9 · 12:05J. Lovl—6320R. Neterda—1111113
WSep 5 · 10:35J. Lovl—1111113R. Neterda—5070
WAug 30 · 12:35J. Lovl—1111710153R. Neterda—791112132
WAug 15 · 17:04J. Lovl—841111113R. Neterda—11119422
LAug 15 · 14:05J. Lovl—81411772R. Neterda—1112511113
WAug 12 · 14:05J. Lovl—1111113R. Neterda—4460
WAug 6 · 11:35J. Lovl—1111133R. Neterda—46110
WJul 30 · 17:08J. Lovl—1111410113R. Neterda—39111292
LJul 30 · 16:35J. Lovl—1011981R. Neterda—12511113
J. Lovl10
WSep 11 · 12:35R. Fitl1.73551191J. Lovl2.0011117113LSep 11 · 11:35J. Lovl2.63612111172R. Fnukal1.44111473113WSep 11 · 10:05R. Neterda2.00771211102J. Lovl1.731111101123WSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320WSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113LSep 8 · 13:34R. Fitl1.80114911113J. Lovl1.9161111672LSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871WSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113
R. Neterda10
WSep 11 · 12:05R. Neterda2.20771111113R. Fnukal1.6111114882WSep 11 · 11:05R. Neterda2.009111111113R. Fitl1.7311137662LSep 11 · 10:05R. Neterda2.00771211102J. Lovl1.731111101123LSep 9 · 13:45R. Vavricka2.14714128113R. Neterda1.581112101152WSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320LSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570LSep 8 · 21:03J. Vidourek2.0081111113R. Neterda1.73116551LSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:05R. Neterda1.618119101J. Vidourek2.2011611123
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