TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122327
Played Sep 13Finished
Richard Vavricka
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119711116611
Jan Manhal Jr
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Jan Manhal Jr below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 94 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 59.5%
94 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 3–2 Jan Manhal Jr Jan Manhal Jr has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vavricka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1501 vs Jr 1470
Vavricka
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 60% vs Jr 40%
Vavricka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 80% vs Jr 30%
Vavricka
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka +2 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Vavricka) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 1.57 / Jr 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Vavricka)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13122327
Vavricka1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 37 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Jr2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 7 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVavricka3wins
AwayJr2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderVavricka leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavricka100%3 of 3
AwayJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka3Jr2n = 5Vavricka took 3 of 5
S2Vavricka4Jr1n = 5Vavricka took 4 of 5
S3Vavricka1Jr4n = 5Jr took 4 of 5
S4Vavricka3Jr0n = 3Vavricka took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricVavrickaJrV − JBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match36.236.4−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaJrBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 214 vs 21 / 4851.9%43.8%111 / 214 vs 21 / 48Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaVavricka 1.57/Jr 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 13 · 06:35R. Vavricka45101171162J. Jr49129116113
WSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka381215113J. Jr28101350
WSep 12 · 08:35R. Vavricka3811115113J. Jr36881191
WAug 23 · 09:05R. Vavricka4013115113J. Jr361191151
LAug 23 · 08:35R. Vavricka205690J. Jr331111113
R. Vavricka10
WSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.109860R. Vavricka1.671111113WSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350WSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38117118162R. Fitl1.53711611183LSep 12 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.53111147113R. Vavricka2.3875111152WSep 9 · 13:45R. Vavricka2.14714128113R. Neterda1.581112101152WSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592WSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113WSep 8 · 13:05R. Vavricka1.531111113O. Pros2.386390
J. Jr10
WSep 13 · 07:05R. Neterda1.8361112762J. Jr1.831151011113WSep 12 · 13:07M. Chmelicek1.33111011182J. Jr3.25412117113LSep 12 · 12:05K. Lahodny2.251112163J. Jr1.57810140WSep 12 · 11:35T. Motacek2.0011611652J. Jr1.73711911113LSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113LSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350LSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.44111111113J. Jr2.63139891WSep 12 · 06:35R. Fitl1.7377111162J. Jr2.00111183113LSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110
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