TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122354
Played Sep 13Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811611––––
Richard Vavricka
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 56 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 67.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 3–9 Richard Vavricka Martin Chmelicek has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:42What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vavricka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-9 in 12
Vavricka
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1336 vs Vavricka 1501
Vavricka
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 20% vs Vavricka 40%
Vavricka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 30% vs Vavricka 70%
Vavricka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -4 · Vavricka -1
Chmelicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vavricka) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 2.10 / Vavricka 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Vavricka)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13122354
Chmelicek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 56 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back13% 10 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Vavricka1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 37 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek2wins
AwayVavricka8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderVavricka leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek25%2 of 8
AwayVavrickan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek8Vavricka2n = 10Chmelicek took 8 of 10
S2Chmelicek5Vavricka5n = 10split evenly
S3Chmelicek2Vavricka8n = 10Vavricka took 8 of 10
S4Chmelicek3Vavricka6n = 9Vavricka took 6 of 9
S5Chmelicek1Vavricka6n = 7Vavricka took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekVavrickaC − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.644.9−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 486 vs 111 / 21446.9%51.9%228 / 486 vs 111 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaChmelicek 2.10/Vavricka 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.8%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vavricka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek239860R. Vavricka331111113
LSep 9 · 12:35M. Chmelicek4311711592R. Vavricka49711911113
LAug 3 · 19:05M. Chmelicek4311871162R. Vavricka48911116113
LJul 25 · 16:05M. Chmelicek37138791R. Vavricka44111111113
WJun 27 · 20:05M. Chmelicek521161112123R. Vavricka51711914102
LJun 20 · 18:35M. Chmelicek4915118692R. Vavricka501341111113
LMay 24 · 11:05M. Chmelicek45811101152R. Vavricka47116127113
WMay 2 · 19:05M. Chmelicek3611113113R. Vavricka35991161
LMar 28 · 20:05M. Chmelicek4411116882R. Vavricka43281111113
LFeb 28 · 20:35M. Chmelicek4411114992R. Vavricka49791111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480LSep 12 · 21:05M. Chmelicek7.0010870R. Pokorny1.081211113LSep 12 · 20:35D. Hons1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.209690LSep 12 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.251051371K. Lahodny1.57121111113WSep 12 · 18:05R. Pokorny1.448560M. Chmelicek2.631111113LSep 12 · 13:07M. Chmelicek1.33111011182J. Jr3.25412117113LSep 12 · 12:35M. Chmelicek2.004970T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.91611411113M. Chmelicek1.8011411742WSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113WSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971
R. Vavricka10
LSep 13 · 06:35R. Vavricka1.57101171162J. Jr2.25129116113WSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350WSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38117118162R. Fitl1.53711611183LSep 12 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.53111147113R. Vavricka2.3875111152WSep 9 · 13:45R. Vavricka2.14714128113R. Neterda1.581112101152WSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592WSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113WSep 8 · 13:05R. Vavricka1.531111113O. Pros2.386390
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