TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119569
Played Sep 12Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10125111311711––
Krystof Lahodny
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrystof Lahodny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Krystof Lahodny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 80 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Krystof Lahodny at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 0–1 Krystof Lahodny Martin Chmelicek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Lahodny beat Chmelicek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:25What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lahodny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1388 vs Lahodny 1528
Lahodny
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 40% vs Lahodny 80%
Lahodny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 60% vs Lahodny 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +1 · Lahodny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Lahodny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lahodny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 2.25 / Lahodny 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Lahodny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13119569
Chmelicek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 60 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Lahodny1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChmelicek0wins
AwayLahodny1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderLahodny leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChmelicekLahodnyC − LBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match37.043.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekLahodnyBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 481 vs 17 / 4147.4%41.5%228 / 481 vs 17 / 41Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LahodnyChmelicek 2.25/Lahodny 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Lahodny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lahodny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 12 · 11:05M. Chmelicek3711411742K. Lahodny43611411113
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 12 · 18:05R. Pokorny1.448560M. Chmelicek2.631111113LSep 12 · 13:07M. Chmelicek1.33111011182J. Jr3.25412117113LSep 12 · 12:35M. Chmelicek2.004970T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.91611411113M. Chmelicek1.8011411742WSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113WSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971WSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113WSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591LSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962
K. Lahodny10
WSep 12 · 20:05R. Pokorny1.506830K. Lahodny2.501111113LSep 12 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.1010119111D. Hons1.6712911133WSep 12 · 13:35K. Lahodny1.531311113T. Motacek2.3811370WSep 12 · 12:05K. Lahodny2.251112163J. Jr1.57810140WSep 12 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.91611411113M. Chmelicek1.8011411742WSep 12 · 10:05K. Lahodny1.731111123T. Motacek2.0085100LSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113WSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.7371212792K. Lahodny2.0011101011113WSep 5 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.10411118113R. Vavricka1.6711881142
Upcoming Matches
M. Chmelicek
K. Lahodny
Nothing scheduled
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