TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119541
Played Sep 12Finished
Radim Pokorny
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511611––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeRadim Pokorny to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Pokorny above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Radim Pokorny at 67.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pokorny 2–0 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:26What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pokorny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pokorny 1574 vs Chmelicek 1337
Pokorny
Wrong
both rated, 237 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pokorny 40% vs Chmelicek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pokorny 40% vs Chmelicek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pokorny +1 · Chmelicek -3
Chmelicek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Pokorny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pokorny form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPokorny 1.44 / Chmelicek 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Pokorny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13119541
Pokorny1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 43 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it79% 38 of 48
Chmelicek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 60 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePokorny2wins
AwayChmelicek0wins
Pokorny leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPokornyChmelicekP − CBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.026.0+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPokornyChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 298 vs 227 / 48049.7%47.3%148 / 298 vs 227 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PokornyPokorny 1.44/Chmelicek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Pokorny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJun 26 · 06:35R. Pokorny4181111113M. Chmelicek30115861
WFeb 22 · 11:05R. Pokorny331111113M. Chmelicek226790
R. Pokorny10
WSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113LSep 4 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7312471122R. Fitl2.001011116113LSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460LSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113LSep 1 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7371113792R. Neterda2.001191111113WAug 31 · 21:15R. Pokorny1.501413113J. Vidourek2.50121170LAug 31 · 20:05R. Pokorny1.736711101R. Neterda2.0011114123
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 12 · 13:07M. Chmelicek1.33111011182J. Jr3.25412117113LSep 12 · 12:35M. Chmelicek2.004970T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.91611411113M. Chmelicek1.8011411742WSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113WSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971WSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113WSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591LSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592
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