TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119653
Played Sep 12Finished
David Hons
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116119––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:35 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 — our read held David Hons at 60.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 7–6 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:35What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1561 vs Chmelicek 1380
Hons
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 80% vs Chmelicek 20%
Hons
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 70% vs Chmelicek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +3 · Chmelicek -1
Hons
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Hons)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.61 / Chmelicek 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Hons)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13119653
Hons1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite61% won 50 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it73% 35 of 48
Chmelicek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 60 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons6wins
AwayChmelicek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHonsn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChmelicek37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons2Chmelicek8n = 10Chmelicek took 8 of 10
S2Hons8Chmelicek2n = 10Hons took 8 of 10
S3Hons5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S4Hons5Chmelicek2n = 7Hons took 5 of 7
S5Hons2Chmelicek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsChmelicekH − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.836.0+2.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 484 vs 228 / 48249.6%47.3%240 / 484 vs 228 / 482Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.61/Chmelicek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 19:35D. Hons3911116652M. Chmelicek47681111113
WJul 18 · 18:05D. Hons331111113M. Chmelicek198830
WJul 18 · 10:05D. Hons3941113113M. Chmelicek291121151
WJun 30 · 15:35D. Hons50811146113M. Chmelicek45116121152
LJun 21 · 18:35D. Hons268990M. Chmelicek331111113
LJun 17 · 21:35D. Hons185850M. Chmelicek331111113
LJun 17 · 19:05D. Hons48711101192M. Chmelicek52119129113
WJun 16 · 19:05D. Hons4271311113M. Chmelicek361111771
WMar 31 · 21:05D. Hons4181111113M. Chmelicek27113851
WMar 31 · 18:05D. Hons521011911113M. Chmelicek3912511742
D. Hons10
WSep 12 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.73811111072D. Hons2.00117512113WSep 12 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.1010119111D. Hons1.6712911133WSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113LSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin1.8361111113D. Hons1.83118361WSep 11 · 19:35D. Hons2.7511114113R. Vosyka1.40781191WSep 11 · 18:05S. Kafka1.6157100D. Hons2.201111123WSep 9 · 21:05J. Vidourek1.539970D. Hons2.381111113WSep 9 · 20:35D. Hons2.0013311113J. Martin1.731111461LSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641LSep 9 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.571213117113D. Hons2.25141151172
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 12 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.251051371K. Lahodny1.57121111113WSep 12 · 18:05R. Pokorny1.448560M. Chmelicek2.631111113LSep 12 · 13:07M. Chmelicek1.33111011182J. Jr3.25412117113LSep 12 · 12:35M. Chmelicek2.004970T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.91611411113M. Chmelicek1.8011411742WSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113WSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971WSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113WSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591
Upcoming Matches
D. Hons
Nothing scheduled
M. Chmelicek
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