TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13121957
Played Sep 12Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
7.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811711––––
Radim Pokorny
Away
1.08
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Radim Pokorny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 59 set 3, 7-11
59 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 1–2 Radim Pokorny Martin Chmelicek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Chmelicek beat Pokorny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Pokorny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pokorny form (20%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 7.00 / Pokorny 1.08
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Pokorny)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13121957
Chmelicek7.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 60 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Pokorny1.08
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 43 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it79% 38 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChmelicek1wins
AwayPokorny2wins
Pokorny leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek2Pokorny1n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
S2Chmelicek1Pokorny2n = 3Pokorny took 2 of 3
S3Chmelicek1Pokorny2n = 3Pokorny took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricChmelicekPokornyC − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match28.331.0−2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekPokornyBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 483 vs 148 / 30147.2%49.2%228 / 483 vs 148 / 301Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PokornyChmelicek 7.00/Pokorny 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.4%
Pokorny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pokorny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 12 · 18:05M. Chmelicek331111113R. Pokorny198560
LJun 26 · 06:35M. Chmelicek30115861R. Pokorny4181111113
LFeb 22 · 11:05M. Chmelicek226790R. Pokorny331111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 12 · 20:35D. Hons1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.209690LSep 12 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.251051371K. Lahodny1.57121111113WSep 12 · 18:05R. Pokorny1.448560M. Chmelicek2.631111113LSep 12 · 13:07M. Chmelicek1.33111011182J. Jr3.25412117113LSep 12 · 12:35M. Chmelicek2.004970T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.91611411113M. Chmelicek1.8011411742WSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113WSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971WSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113
R. Pokorny10
LSep 12 · 20:05R. Pokorny1.506830K. Lahodny2.501111113LSep 12 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.73811111072D. Hons2.00117512113LSep 12 · 18:05R. Pokorny1.448560M. Chmelicek2.631111113WSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113LSep 4 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7312471122R. Fitl2.001011116113LSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460LSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113
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