TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13135212
Played Sep 15Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115118711119––
Radim Pokorny
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:16 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Radim Pokorny below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Radek Fitl at 59.4%
73 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 13–9 Radim Pokorny Radim Pokorny has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Fitl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Fitl
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1584 vs Pokorny 1474
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 40% vs Pokorny 20%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 50% vs Pokorny 30%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl -2 · Pokorny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pokorny form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.44 / Pokorny 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Fitl)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13135212
Fitl1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 84 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it86% 47 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it78% 64 of 82
Pokorny2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 42 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFitl7wins
AwayPokorny3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFitl leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl85.7%6 of 7
AwayPokorny66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl7Pokorny3n = 10Fitl took 7 of 10
S2Fitl8Pokorny2n = 10Fitl took 8 of 10
S3Fitl4Pokorny6n = 10Pokorny took 6 of 10
S4Fitl4Pokorny3n = 7Fitl took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFitlPokornyF − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.833.0+3.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlPokornyBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 370 vs 155 / 31753.2%48.9%197 / 370 vs 155 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFitl 1.44/Pokorny 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 10:35R. Fitl3811115113R. Pokorny28761141
WSep 14 · 13:05R. Fitl331111113R. Pokorny248790
WSep 14 · 11:35R. Fitl4111118113R. Pokorny29661161
WSep 4 · 10:35R. Fitl491011116113R. Pokorny3612471122
LAug 30 · 20:05R. Fitl33711691R. Pokorny4211911113
LAug 15 · 13:40R. Fitl133730R. Pokorny331111113
WAug 15 · 12:05R. Fitl4111136113R. Pokorny337111141
WAug 11 · 21:38R. Fitl4211119113R. Pokorny30561181
WAug 11 · 20:05R. Fitl381611113R. Pokorny2714670
LAug 7 · 11:35R. Fitl40114113112R. Pokorny48611711133
R. Fitl10
LSep 15 · 12:05J. Joksch1.441112123R. Fitl2.63510100LSep 15 · 11:35R. Neterda1.8012811133R. Fitl1.9110119111WSep 15 · 10:35R. Fitl1.5011115113R. Pokorny2.50761141WSep 14 · 13:05R. Fitl1.571111113R. Pokorny2.258790LSep 14 · 12:05J. Joksch1.4011119113R. Fitl2.75561131WSep 14 · 11:35R. Pokorny2.10661161R. Fitl1.6711118113LSep 14 · 10:35R. Fitl1.8061651172R. Vosyka1.911114119113WSep 12 · 09:38R. Fitl2.10111213113J. Ruzicka1.677141151WSep 12 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.736101111122R. Fitl2.00111267143WSep 12 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38117118162R. Fitl1.53711611183
R. Pokorny10
WSep 15 · 12:35R. Pokorny1.801111138113R. Neterda1.9156151172LSep 15 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361311113R. Pokorny3.0011660LSep 15 · 10:35R. Fitl1.5011115113R. Pokorny2.50761141LSep 14 · 13:05R. Fitl1.571111113R. Pokorny2.258790LSep 14 · 12:35R. Vosyka1.611111113R. Pokorny2.207270LSep 14 · 11:35R. Pokorny2.10661161R. Fitl1.6711118113WSep 14 · 10:05J. Joksch1.22111211982R. Pokorny4.001310911113LSep 13 · 21:45D. Hons1.8311911113R. Pokorny1.83311891WSep 13 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.671110491R. Pokorny2.1051211113LSep 13 · 19:35D. Hons1.6712116133R. Pokorny2.1010911111
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