TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13125000
Played Sep 13Finished
David Hons
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101196111311––
Radim Pokorny
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:00 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Radim Pokorny below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 83 set 4, 13-11 — our read held David Hons at 54.5%
83 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 14–11 Radim Pokorny Radim Pokorny has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-11 in 25
Hons
Correct
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1580 vs Pokorny 1507
Hons
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 80% vs Pokorny 60%
Hons
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 80% vs Pokorny 50%
Hons
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +1 · Pokorny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pokorny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.67 / Pokorny 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Hons)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13125000
Hons1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite65% won 49 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it75% 35 of 47
Pokorny2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 39 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons8wins
AwayPokorny2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons100%8 of 8
AwayPokornyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons8Pokorny2n = 10Hons took 8 of 10
S2Hons6Pokorny4n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S3Hons6Pokorny4n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S4Hons4Pokorny3n = 7Hons took 4 of 7
S5Hons3Pokorny1n = 4Hons took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsPokornyH − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.136.1+6.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsPokornyBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 487 vs 152 / 30749.7%49.5%242 / 487 vs 152 / 307Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.67/Pokorny 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 19:05D. Hons46117512113R. Pokorny47811111072
WAug 29 · 21:10D. Hons571114138113R. Pokorny53712151182
WAug 29 · 19:05D. Hons45117115113R. Pokorny4151161182
LAug 24 · 20:05D. Hons31931271R. Pokorny43111110113
LJul 16 · 13:40D. Hons48911711102R. Pokorny48119115123
WJul 16 · 12:35D. Hons43111110113R. Pokorny28491231
WJun 27 · 17:10D. Hons43111011113R. Pokorny34712691
WJun 27 · 15:05D. Hons331111113R. Pokorny218760
WJun 22 · 13:35D. Hons401111183R. Pokorny2233160
WJun 22 · 12:35D. Hons351113113R. Pokorny2481150
D. Hons10
WSep 13 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.8097100D. Hons1.911111123LSep 12 · 21:34D. Hons1.836750K. Lahodny1.831111113WSep 12 · 20:35D. Hons1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.209690WSep 12 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.73811111072D. Hons2.00117512113WSep 12 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.1010119111D. Hons1.6712911133WSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113LSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin1.8361111113D. Hons1.83118361WSep 11 · 19:35D. Hons2.7511114113R. Vosyka1.40781191WSep 11 · 18:05S. Kafka1.6157100D. Hons2.201111123WSep 9 · 21:05J. Vidourek1.539970D. Hons2.381111113
R. Pokorny10
LSep 13 · 18:35R. Pokorny1.4411941272J. Vidourek2.638111110113WSep 13 · 17:34J. Lovl2.63811781R. Pokorny1.4411211113LSep 13 · 16:05J. Lovl2.7511101210113R. Pokorny1.40812101272WSep 13 · 15:35J. Vidourek2.63711881R. Pokorny1.4411711113WSep 13 · 14:35R. Pokorny2.75111311113K. Lahodny1.40515781WSep 12 · 21:05M. Chmelicek7.0010870R. Pokorny1.081211113LSep 12 · 20:05R. Pokorny1.506830K. Lahodny2.501111113LSep 12 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.73811111072D. Hons2.00117512113LSep 12 · 18:05R. Pokorny1.448560M. Chmelicek2.631111113WSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982
Upcoming Matches
D. Hons
R. Pokorny
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.