TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13125103
Played Sep 13Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181012121010––
Radim Pokorny
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:15 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeRadim Pokorny to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Radim Pokorny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-6
Point 76 set 4, 7-6 — our read held Radim Pokorny at 65.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 7–26 Radim Pokorny Jan Lovl has won 7 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pokorny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-26 in 33
Pokorny
Wrong
gap of 19 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1567 vs Pokorny 1539
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 60% vs Pokorny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 60% vs Pokorny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl +2 · Pokorny +3
Pokorny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Pokorny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pokorny form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 2.75 / Pokorny 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Pokorny)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13125103
Lovl2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 22 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Pokorny1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 41 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it80% 36 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLovl2wins
AwayPokorny8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPokorny leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovl66.7%2 of 3
AwayPokorny100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl3Pokorny7n = 10Pokorny took 7 of 10
S2Lovl1Pokorny9n = 10Pokorny took 9 of 10
S3Lovl3Pokorny7n = 10Pokorny took 7 of 10
S4Lovl2Pokorny4n = 6Pokorny took 4 of 6
S5Lovl2Pokorny1n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricLovlPokornyL − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.638.8−8.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlPokornyBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 339 vs 151 / 30451.9%49.7%176 / 339 vs 151 / 304Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PokornyLovl 2.75/Pokorny 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Pokorny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 13:15J. Lovl29571161R. Pokorny3811115113
LAug 30 · 11:35J. Lovl196760R. Pokorny331111113
LAug 7 · 10:35J. Lovl369101161R. Pokorny4111127113
LAug 6 · 12:05J. Lovl228770R. Pokorny331111113
LAug 5 · 10:35J. Lovl3761141152R. Pokorny42115114113
LJul 23 · 12:35J. Lovl29117471R. Pokorny4181111113
LJul 16 · 10:35J. Lovl217860R. Pokorny331111113
WJul 11 · 09:10J. Lovl42124411113R. Pokorny49101111892
LJul 11 · 06:05J. Lovl2671180R. Pokorny351113113
WJul 9 · 10:05J. Lovl45115117113R. Pokorny4391141182
J. Lovl10
WSep 13 · 15:05J. Lovl1.441111153K. Lahodny2.6378130WSep 13 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5011118123J. Vidourek2.405611101LSep 11 · 13:40J. Lovl1.5312651182R. Neterda2.381011114113WSep 11 · 12:35R. Fitl1.73551191J. Lovl2.0011117113LSep 11 · 11:35J. Lovl2.63612111172R. Fnukal1.44111473113WSep 11 · 10:05R. Neterda2.00771211102J. Lovl1.731111101123WSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320WSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113
R. Pokorny10
WSep 13 · 15:35J. Vidourek2.63711881R. Pokorny1.4411711113WSep 13 · 14:35R. Pokorny2.75111311113K. Lahodny1.40515781WSep 12 · 21:05M. Chmelicek7.0010870R. Pokorny1.081211113LSep 12 · 20:05R. Pokorny1.506830K. Lahodny2.501111113LSep 12 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.73811111072D. Hons2.00117512113LSep 12 · 18:05R. Pokorny1.448560M. Chmelicek2.631111113WSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113LSep 4 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7312471122R. Fitl2.001011116113
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