TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13125102
Played Sep 13Finished
Radim Pokorny
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1189114111210711
Jan Vidourek
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:15 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pokorny to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Pokorny above · Jan Vidourek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Radim Pokorny at 66.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pokorny 7–2 Jan Vidourek Jan Vidourek has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Pokorny beat Vidourek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pokorny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Pokorny
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pokorny 1538 vs Vidourek 1442
Pokorny
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pokorny 80% vs Vidourek 20%
Pokorny
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pokorny 50% vs Vidourek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pokorny +1 · Vidourek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Pokorny) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vidourek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPokorny 1.44 / Vidourek 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Pokorny)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13125102
Pokorny1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 41 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it80% 36 of 45
Vidourek2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 47 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back28% 14 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePokorny7wins
AwayVidourek2wins
3 of 9 to a deciderPokorny leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePokorny100%5 of 5
AwayVidourek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pokorny5Vidourek4n = 9Pokorny took 5 of 9
S2Pokorny7Vidourek2n = 9Pokorny took 7 of 9
S3Pokorny7Vidourek2n = 9Pokorny took 7 of 9
S4Pokorny2Vidourek2n = 4split evenly
S5Pokorny2Vidourek1n = 3Pokorny took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricPokornyVidourekP − VBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.431.4+7.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPokornyVidourekBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 306 vs 169 / 32849.7%51.5%152 / 306 vs 169 / 328Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PokornyPokorny 1.44/Vidourek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Pokorny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vidourek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 13 · 15:35R. Pokorny4011711113J. Vidourek34711881
WAug 31 · 21:15R. Pokorny381413113J. Vidourek30121170
WAug 31 · 18:05R. Pokorny351113113J. Vidourek2061130
WAug 30 · 19:05R. Pokorny331111113J. Vidourek239770
WAug 11 · 18:05R. Pokorny331111113J. Vidourek121470
WMar 26 · 22:05R. Pokorny496111011113J. Vidourek3411212362
LMar 26 · 20:05R. Pokorny2559110J. Vidourek351111133
WMar 14 · 16:05R. Pokorny47711116123J. Vidourek46119511102
LDec 23 · 11:35R. Pokorny46511117122J. Vidourek49117611143
R. Pokorny10
WSep 13 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.671110491R. Pokorny2.1051211113LSep 13 · 19:35D. Hons1.6712116133R. Pokorny2.1010911111WSep 13 · 17:34J. Lovl2.63811781R. Pokorny1.4411211113LSep 13 · 16:05J. Lovl2.7511101210113R. Pokorny1.40812101272WSep 13 · 15:35J. Vidourek2.63711881R. Pokorny1.4411711113WSep 13 · 14:35R. Pokorny2.75111311113K. Lahodny1.40515781WSep 12 · 21:05M. Chmelicek7.0010870R. Pokorny1.081211113LSep 12 · 20:05R. Pokorny1.506830K. Lahodny2.501111113LSep 12 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.73811111072D. Hons2.00117512113LSep 12 · 18:05R. Pokorny1.448560M. Chmelicek2.631111113
J. Vidourek10
LSep 13 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.61111111113J. Vidourek2.20137441WSep 13 · 17:06K. Lahodny1.5081111882J. Vidourek2.5011361193LSep 13 · 16:35K. Lahodny1.611115113J. Vidourek2.2081370LSep 13 · 15:35J. Vidourek2.63711881R. Pokorny1.4411711113LSep 13 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5011118123J. Vidourek2.405611101LSep 9 · 21:05J. Vidourek1.539970D. Hons2.381111113LSep 9 · 20:05M. Flesar2.0011911113J. Vidourek1.73811881LSep 9 · 19:35J. Martin2.001111113J. Vidourek1.739680WSep 9 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.571213117113D. Hons2.25141151172WSep 8 · 21:03J. Vidourek2.0081111113R. Neterda1.73116551
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