TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124196
Played Sep 13Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12103119111181210
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:09 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 97 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Radek Neterda at 59.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 9–7 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Neterda beat Chmelicek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (64%)
Neterda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Neterda
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1494 vs Chmelicek 1350
Neterda
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 60% vs Chmelicek 20%
Neterda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 50% vs Chmelicek 20%
Neterda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda -2 · Chmelicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.44 / Chmelicek 2.60
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Neterda)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13124196
Neterda1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 55 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it72% 38 of 53
Chmelicek2.60
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 56 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back13% 10 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda7wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda87.5%7 of 8
AwayChmelicekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda8Chmelicek2n = 10Neterda took 8 of 10
S2Neterda4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S3Neterda7Chmelicek3n = 10Neterda took 7 of 10
S4Neterda4Chmelicek1n = 5Neterda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaChmelicekN − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.532.0+4.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 408 vs 229 / 48850.5%46.9%206 / 408 vs 229 / 488Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.44/Chmelicek 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda47123911123M. Chmelicek501011118102
WSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda381116113M. Chmelicek2861480
WSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda331111113M. Chmelicek219570
WJul 1 · 13:40R. Neterda391711113M. Chmelicek2515550
WJul 1 · 11:05R. Neterda3611311113M. Chmelicek27711361
LJun 17 · 17:45R. Neterda239680M. Chmelicek331111113
LJun 17 · 16:35R. Neterda43117211122M. Chmelicek50611118143
WMay 31 · 14:05R. Neterda331111113M. Chmelicek187470
LMar 8 · 22:35R. Neterda31761171M. Chmelicek3811115113
WMar 8 · 20:35R. Neterda4212811113M. Chmelicek301011541
R. Neterda10
LSep 13 · 08:05R. Neterda1.8047111172R. Vavricka1.91111139113LSep 13 · 07:05R. Neterda1.8361112762J. Jr1.831151011113WSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480WSep 11 · 13:40J. Lovl1.5312651182R. Neterda2.381011114113WSep 11 · 12:05R. Neterda2.20771111113R. Fnukal1.6111114882WSep 11 · 11:05R. Neterda2.009111111113R. Fitl1.7311137662LSep 11 · 10:05R. Neterda2.00771211102J. Lovl1.731111101123LSep 9 · 13:45R. Vavricka2.14714128113R. Neterda1.581112101152WSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320LSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 13 · 08:35J. Jr1.73129481M. Chmelicek2.00101111113LSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.109860R. Vavricka1.671111113LSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480LSep 12 · 21:05M. Chmelicek7.0010870R. Pokorny1.081211113LSep 12 · 20:35D. Hons1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.209690LSep 12 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.251051371K. Lahodny1.57121111113WSep 12 · 18:05R. Pokorny1.448560M. Chmelicek2.631111113LSep 12 · 13:07M. Chmelicek1.33111011182J. Jr3.25412117113LSep 12 · 12:35M. Chmelicek2.004970T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.91611411113M. Chmelicek1.8011411742
Upcoming Matches
R. Neterda
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M. Chmelicek
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