TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13123087
Played Sep 13Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411711113119711
Richard Vavricka
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 85 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Radek Neterda at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 9–5 Richard Vavricka Richard Vavricka has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Neterda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Neterda
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1488 vs Vavricka 1501
Vavricka
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 80% vs Vavricka 60%
Neterda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 60% vs Vavricka 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda -1 · Vavricka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Neterda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.80 / Vavricka 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Neterda)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13123087
Neterda1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 55 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it72% 38 of 53
Vavricka1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda6wins
AwayVavricka4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda71.4%5 of 7
AwayVavricka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda7Vavricka3n = 10Neterda took 7 of 10
S2Neterda4Vavricka6n = 10Vavricka took 6 of 10
S3Neterda7Vavricka3n = 10Neterda took 7 of 10
S4Neterda6Vavricka2n = 8Neterda took 6 of 8
S5Neterda0Vavricka3n = 3Vavricka took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaVavrickaN − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.937.7+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 406 vs 111 / 21450.5%51.9%205 / 406 vs 111 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.80/Vavricka 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vavricka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 13:45R. Neterda491112101152R. Vavricka52714128113
LSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda237970R. Vavricka331111113
WSep 7 · 11:35R. Neterda3711411113R. Vavricka33711691
WJul 26 · 20:05R. Neterda341112113R. Vavricka1651010
WJun 7 · 11:35R. Neterda4371114113R. Vavricka411191291
LMay 16 · 17:05R. Neterda4681211962R. Vavricka471110411113
WMay 16 · 14:05R. Neterda4312119113R. Vavricka361071181
WApr 5 · 14:35R. Neterda3911611113R. Vavricka33911941
LFeb 28 · 22:15R. Neterda3611611352R. Vavricka49911711113
WFeb 28 · 21:05R. Neterda3911611113R. Vavricka37911891
R. Neterda10
LSep 13 · 07:05R. Neterda1.8361112762J. Jr1.831151011113WSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480WSep 11 · 13:40J. Lovl1.5312651182R. Neterda2.381011114113WSep 11 · 12:05R. Neterda2.20771111113R. Fnukal1.6111114882WSep 11 · 11:05R. Neterda2.009111111113R. Fitl1.7311137662LSep 11 · 10:05R. Neterda2.00771211102J. Lovl1.731111101123LSep 9 · 13:45R. Vavricka2.14714128113R. Neterda1.581112101152WSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320LSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570
R. Vavricka10
WSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.109860R. Vavricka1.671111113LSep 13 · 06:35R. Vavricka1.57101171162J. Jr2.25129116113WSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350WSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38117118162R. Fitl1.53711611183LSep 12 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.53111147113R. Vavricka2.3875111152WSep 9 · 13:45R. Vavricka2.14714128113R. Neterda1.581112101152WSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592WSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Neterda
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R. Vavricka
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