TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139365
Played Sep 16Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116711116115––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 68 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Radek Neterda at 66.1%
68 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 9–7 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Neterda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Neterda
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1535 vs Chmelicek 1415
Neterda
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 60% vs Chmelicek 40%
Neterda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 60% vs Chmelicek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda +2 · Chmelicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Neterda)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.50 / Chmelicek 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Neterda)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13139365
Neterda1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 54 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it72% 38 of 53
Chmelicek2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 59 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda7wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda87.5%7 of 8
AwayChmelicekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda8Chmelicek2n = 10Neterda took 8 of 10
S2Neterda4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S3Neterda7Chmelicek3n = 10Neterda took 7 of 10
S4Neterda4Chmelicek1n = 5Neterda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaChmelicekN − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.532.0+4.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 413 vs 236 / 50150.6%47.1%209 / 413 vs 236 / 501Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.50/Chmelicek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda47123911123M. Chmelicek501011118102
WSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda381116113M. Chmelicek2861480
WSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda331111113M. Chmelicek219570
WJul 1 · 13:40R. Neterda391711113M. Chmelicek2515550
WJul 1 · 11:05R. Neterda3611311113M. Chmelicek27711361
LJun 17 · 17:45R. Neterda239680M. Chmelicek331111113
LJun 17 · 16:35R. Neterda43117211122M. Chmelicek50611118143
WMay 31 · 14:05R. Neterda331111113M. Chmelicek187470
LMar 8 · 22:35R. Neterda31761171M. Chmelicek3811115113
WMar 8 · 20:35R. Neterda4212811113M. Chmelicek301011541
R. Neterda10
WSep 16 · 14:05R. Neterda1.911111113J. Jr1.806850WSep 15 · 13:50J. Joksch1.571198101R. Neterda2.2591111123LSep 15 · 12:35R. Pokorny1.801111138113R. Neterda1.9156151172WSep 15 · 11:35R. Neterda1.8012811133R. Fitl1.9110119111LSep 15 · 10:05J. Joksch1.50971111113R. Neterda2.5011118662WSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda1.44123911123M. Chmelicek2.601011118102LSep 13 · 08:05R. Neterda1.8047111172R. Vavricka1.91111139113LSep 13 · 07:05R. Neterda1.8361112762J. Jr1.831151011113WSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480WSep 11 · 13:40J. Lovl1.5312651182R. Neterda2.381011114113
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 16 · 14:35L. Vana1.802680M. Chmelicek1.911111113WSep 16 · 13:10M. Flesar1.80117891M. Chmelicek1.9161111113LSep 16 · 12:35D. Hons1.50111110113M. Chmelicek2.50711281LSep 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek1.8311581192M. Flesar1.83211119113LSep 16 · 10:05R. Vosyka1.44119511163M. Chmelicek2.63711115142LSep 15 · 17:40M. Chmelicek1.8376111172T. Krcil1.83111195113WSep 15 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.91114147113P. Pesout1.80811121162WSep 15 · 15:05O. Pros1.91611281M. Chmelicek1.8011611113LSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda1.44123911123M. Chmelicek2.601011118102LSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480
Upcoming Matches
R. Neterda
Nothing scheduled
M. Chmelicek
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