TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13136018
Played Sep 15Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711611119115711
Tomas Krcil
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Tomas Krcil below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 8–19 Tomas Krcil Martin Chmelicek has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Chmelicek beat Krcil 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:07What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-19 in 27
Krcil
Correct
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1414 vs Krcil 1396
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 80% vs Krcil 40%
Chmelicek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 60% vs Krcil 40%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +4 · Krcil +1
Chmelicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krcil) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.83 / Krcil 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krcil)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13136018
Chmelicek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Krcil1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayKrcil7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek50%2 of 4
AwayKrcil83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek4Krcil6n = 10Krcil took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek7Krcil3n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S3Chmelicek3Krcil7n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S4Chmelicek2Krcil6n = 8Krcil took 6 of 8
S5Chmelicek1Krcil3n = 4Krcil took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekKrcilC − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.339.4−3.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekKrcilBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 495 vs 144 / 28247.3%51.1%234 / 495 vs 144 / 282Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilChmelicek 1.83/Krcil 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 14:35M. Chmelicek3851111113T. Krcil29116751
LJun 25 · 16:05M. Chmelicek44611111062T. Krcil50118812113
LJun 17 · 20:35M. Chmelicek27711451T. Krcil3911611113
LJun 16 · 18:35M. Chmelicek48111112772T. Krcil49671411113
LJun 15 · 21:05M. Chmelicek165560T. Krcil331111113
WJun 15 · 20:35M. Chmelicek4011117113T. Krcil31671171
LJun 11 · 18:35M. Chmelicek239950T. Krcil331111113
LJun 8 · 18:35M. Chmelicek37911981T. Krcil4211911113
LJun 2 · 21:15M. Chmelicek4411611882T. Krcil42311611113
WJun 2 · 19:35M. Chmelicek46121166113T. Krcil46107111172
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 15 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.91114147113P. Pesout1.80811121162WSep 15 · 15:05O. Pros1.91611281M. Chmelicek1.8011611113WSep 15 · 14:35T. Krcil1.83116751M. Chmelicek1.8351111113WSep 13 · 13:10M. Chmelicek1.806121112113J. Jr1.91111061492LSep 13 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.80911691P. Pesout1.9111911113LSep 13 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.40115311113M. Chmelicek2.7571111752WSep 13 · 10:35J. Jr1.80911631M. Chmelicek1.9111811113LSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda1.44123911123M. Chmelicek2.601011118102WSep 13 · 08:35J. Jr1.73129481M. Chmelicek2.00101111113LSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.109860R. Vavricka1.671111113
T. Krcil10
WSep 15 · 16:05O. Pros1.809670T. Krcil1.911111113LSep 15 · 15:35P. Pesout2.00116811113T. Krcil1.7381111582LSep 15 · 14:35T. Krcil1.83116751M. Chmelicek1.8351111113LSep 14 · 21:35M. Rojka1.731111113T. Krcil2.005290WSep 14 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113M. Cyrus2.208440LSep 14 · 19:05T. Krcil1.736790M. Rojka2.001111113WSep 14 · 18:05T. Krcil1.4411911113R. Jonas2.63711591LSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar1.63118711113T. Krcil2.1531111482WSep 10 · 20:35T. Krcil2.20117114113L. Vosyka1.6181161182LSep 10 · 19:05S. Kafka1.73741111113T. Krcil2.0011112782
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