TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111548
Played Sep 10Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
1.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113811711114118
Tomas Krcil
Away
2.15
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Tomas Krcil below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 85 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 9–7 Tomas Krcil Tomas Krcil has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Flesar beat Krcil 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Flesar
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1489 vs Krcil 1417
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 40% vs Krcil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 40% vs Krcil 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -2 · Krcil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Flesar) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.63 / Krcil 2.15
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Flesar)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13111548
Flesar1.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 74 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it76% 63 of 83
Krcil2.15
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog54% won 22 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back38% 9 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar6wins
AwayKrcil4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFlesar leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar75%6 of 8
AwayKrciln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar8Krcil2n = 10Flesar took 8 of 10
S2Flesar4Krcil6n = 10Krcil took 6 of 10
S3Flesar5Krcil5n = 10split evenly
S4Flesar4Krcil3n = 7Flesar took 4 of 7
S5Flesar2Krcil2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarKrcilF − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.036.0+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarKrcilBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 401 vs 141 / 27552.9%51.3%212 / 401 vs 141 / 275Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.63/Krcil 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar—118711113T. Krcil—31111482
WSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar—1118113T. Krcil—21670
WAug 26 · 18:05M. Flesar—11135123T. Krcil—91111101
WAug 3 · 16:35M. Flesar—11411113T. Krcil—711891
WJul 2 · 10:35M. Flesar—1131111113T. Krcil—31131352
LJun 8 · 15:05M. Flesar—5770T. Krcil—1111113
LJun 1 · 17:10M. Flesar—11511962T. Krcil—511811113
LJun 1 · 15:05M. Flesar—1181061T. Krcil—41112113
LMay 25 · 18:35M. Flesar—711101462T. Krcil—1151212113
WMay 17 · 14:35M. Flesar—1111113T. Krcil—7660
M. Flesar10
LSep 10 · 20:05S. Kafka1.531111153M. Flesar2.3895130LSep 10 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.67111197143M. Flesar2.10921111122WSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670LSep 9 · 21:35J. Martin1.4011119113M. Flesar2.75551181WSep 9 · 20:05M. Flesar2.0011911113J. Vidourek1.73811881WSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641LSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113LSep 8 · 21:33M. Flesar2.0051111942L. Vosyka1.73119411113WSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.8331111113M. Flesar1.83118691
T. Krcil10
WSep 10 · 20:35T. Krcil2.20117114113L. Vosyka1.6181161182LSep 10 · 19:05S. Kafka1.73741111113T. Krcil2.0011112782LSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670LSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113WSep 8 · 16:35D. Hons1.7311118842T. Krcil2.00461111113LSep 8 · 15:35T. Krcil2.63611521R. Fitl1.4411611113LSep 8 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50111188113T. Krcil2.5089111182WSep 7 · 21:15J. Hajek2.1091080T. Krcil1.671112113LSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin1.671141110113T. Krcil2.1001171262LSep 7 · 19:35M. Rojka2.201114113T. Krcil1.6161280
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