TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13108337
Played Sep 10Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1121816117––––
Tomas Krcil
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Tomas Krcil below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 18-16
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 65 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 7–7 Tomas Krcil Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:03What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1458 vs Krcil 1460
Krcil
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 40% vs Krcil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 50% vs Krcil 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -1 · Krcil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Flesar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.80 / Krcil 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Flesar)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13108337
Flesar1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 74 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it76% 63 of 83
Krcil1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog54% won 22 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back38% 9 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar4wins
AwayKrcil6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar50%4 of 8
AwayKrciln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar8Krcil2n = 10Flesar took 8 of 10
S2Flesar3Krcil7n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S3Flesar5Krcil5n = 10split evenly
S4Flesar3Krcil5n = 8Krcil took 5 of 8
S5Flesar1Krcil3n = 4Krcil took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarKrcilF − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.238.9−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarKrcilBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 397 vs 140 / 27152.9%51.7%210 / 397 vs 140 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.80/Krcil 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 18:05M. Flesar—11135123T. Krcil—91111101
WAug 3 · 16:35M. Flesar—11411113T. Krcil—711891
WJul 2 · 10:35M. Flesar—1131111113T. Krcil—31131352
LJun 8 · 15:05M. Flesar—5770T. Krcil—1111113
LJun 1 · 17:10M. Flesar—11511962T. Krcil—511811113
LJun 1 · 15:05M. Flesar—1181061T. Krcil—41112113
LMay 25 · 18:35M. Flesar—711101462T. Krcil—1151212113
WMay 17 · 14:35M. Flesar—1111113T. Krcil—7660
LMay 15 · 16:05M. Flesar—1174101T. Krcil—51111123
LMay 5 · 20:05M. Flesar—13511812T. Krcil—1111811113
M. Flesar10
LSep 9 · 21:35J. Martin1.4011119113M. Flesar2.75551181WSep 9 · 20:05M. Flesar2.0011911113J. Vidourek1.73811881WSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641LSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113LSep 8 · 21:33M. Flesar2.0051111942L. Vosyka1.73119411113WSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.8331111113M. Flesar1.83118691WSep 8 · 18:35M. Flesar2.001111113J. Vidourek1.737880LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143
T. Krcil10
LSep 10 · 19:05S. Kafka1.73741111113T. Krcil2.0011112782LSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113WSep 8 · 16:35D. Hons1.7311118842T. Krcil2.00461111113LSep 8 · 15:35T. Krcil2.63611521R. Fitl1.4411611113LSep 8 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50111188113T. Krcil2.5089111182WSep 7 · 21:15J. Hajek2.1091080T. Krcil1.671112113LSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin1.671141110113T. Krcil2.1001171262LSep 7 · 19:35M. Rojka2.201114113T. Krcil1.6161280LSep 7 · 18:35T. Krcil1.50191181J. Hajek2.5011117113WSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952
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