TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129258
Played Sep 14Finished
Tomas Krcil
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911115119––
Roman Jonas
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Roman Jonas below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Krcil at 65.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krcil 4–1 Roman Jonas Roman Jonas has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Krcil
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1417 vs Jonas 1381
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 20% vs Jonas 40%
Jonas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 30% vs Jonas 50%
Jonas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil -1 · Jonas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Krcil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.44 / Jonas 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Krcil)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13129258
Krcil1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 44 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it71% 31 of 44
Jonas2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog9% won 1 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back13% 1 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKrcil4wins
AwayJonas1wins
Krcil leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrciln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJonas33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil2Jonas3n = 5Jonas took 3 of 5
S2Krcil4Jonas1n = 5Krcil took 4 of 5
S3Krcil4Jonas1n = 5Krcil took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKrcilJonasK − JBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match34.629.4+5.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilJonasBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 275 vs 33 / 7251.3%45.8%141 / 275 vs 33 / 72Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.44/Jonas 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WApr 23 · 18:05T. Krcil331111113R. Jonas164660
WMar 31 · 17:40T. Krcil44111111113R. Jonas33139651
WMar 31 · 15:05T. Krcil341111123R. Jonas2798100
WMar 30 · 20:05T. Krcil43101111113R. Jonas38129981
LJan 6 · 20:35T. Krcil197750R. Jonas331111113
T. Krcil10
LSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar1.63118711113T. Krcil2.1531111482WSep 10 · 20:35T. Krcil2.20117114113L. Vosyka1.6181161182LSep 10 · 19:05S. Kafka1.73741111113T. Krcil2.0011112782LSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670LSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113WSep 8 · 16:35D. Hons1.7311118842T. Krcil2.00461111113LSep 8 · 15:35T. Krcil2.63611521R. Fitl1.4411611113LSep 8 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50111188113T. Krcil2.5089111182WSep 7 · 21:15J. Hajek2.1091080T. Krcil1.671112113LSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin1.671141110113T. Krcil2.1001171262
R. Jonas10
WAug 25 · 21:10J. Kabelka2.108370R. Jonas1.671111113LAug 25 · 20:35M. Flesar2.2511312113R. Jonas1.579111051LAug 25 · 19:35R. Jonas2.00511891L. Vosyka1.7311411113LAug 25 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.9171211123R. Jonas1.8011109101WJul 27 · 21:20R. Jonas1.611112113M. Chmelicek2.2091030LJul 27 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.501110119113R. Jonas1.5071261152WJul 27 · 19:35R. Jonas1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.918830LJul 27 · 18:05J. Vidourek1.61691111113R. Jonas2.2011117582WJul 13 · 21:35M. Dvorak3.701111611112R. Jonas1.21661113133WJul 13 · 20:35R. Jonas1.671111113R. Jaros2.004920
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