TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12309998
Played Jul 27Finished
Jan Kabelka
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171012116911115
Roman Jonas
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:26 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Jonas to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Roman Jonas below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 93 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Roman Jonas at 65.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kabelka 3–7 Roman Jonas Jan Kabelka has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:26What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Jonas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Jonas
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kabelka 1389 vs Jonas 1386
Kabelka
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kabelka 40% vs Jonas 60%
Jonas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kabelka 40% vs Jonas 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kabelka -1 · Jonas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kabelka) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKabelka 2.50 / Jonas 1.50
Signal prob.66% / 35%
Edge (Kabelka)+28.0pp
TT Cup · #12309998
Kabelka2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 30 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Jonas1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 7 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKabelka3wins
AwayJonas7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderJonas leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKabelka50%3 of 6
AwayJonas100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kabelka6Jonas4n = 10Kabelka took 6 of 10
S2Kabelka3Jonas7n = 10Jonas took 7 of 10
S3Kabelka4Jonas6n = 10Jonas took 6 of 10
S4Kabelka3Jonas5n = 8Jonas took 5 of 8
S5Kabelka2Jonas4n = 6Jonas took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKabelkaJonasK − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.942.8−2.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKabelkaJonasBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 197 vs 31 / 6645.2%47%89 / 197 vs 31 / 66Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KabelkaKabelka 2.50/Jonas 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.5%
Kabelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kabelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 13 · 19:05J. Kabelka—111145113R. Jonas—96111182
LJun 30 · 18:35J. Kabelka—610111192R. Jonas—111257113
WJun 4 · 18:35J. Kabelka—1151111133R. Jonas—911513112
LApr 23 · 19:05J. Kabelka—281151R. Jonas—11117113
LApr 9 · 20:35J. Kabelka—2970R. Jonas—1111113
WJan 13 · 22:35J. Kabelka—111011143R. Jonas—6125121
LJan 13 · 20:05J. Kabelka—111112332R. Jonas—551411113
LJan 6 · 22:45J. Kabelka—1110111192R. Jonas—512138113
LJan 6 · 19:35J. Kabelka—12119872R. Jonas—1051111113
LDec 5 · 19:35J. Kabelka—81390R. Jonas—1115113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720WSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180LSep 2 · 21:18M. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7341180LSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133LSep 2 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.8011211632M. Rojka1.91611311113LSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113
R. Jonas10
WAug 25 · 21:10J. Kabelka2.108370R. Jonas1.671111113LAug 25 · 20:35M. Flesar2.2511312113R. Jonas1.579111051LAug 25 · 19:35R. Jonas2.00511891L. Vosyka1.7311411113LAug 25 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.9171211123R. Jonas1.8011109101WJul 27 · 21:20R. Jonas1.611112113M. Chmelicek2.2091030WJul 27 · 19:35R. Jonas1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.918830LJul 27 · 18:05J. Vidourek1.61691111113R. Jonas2.2011117582WJul 13 · 21:35M. Dvorak3.701111611112R. Jonas1.21661113133WJul 13 · 20:35R. Jonas1.671111113R. Jaros2.004920LJul 13 · 19:05J. Kabelka2.06111145113R. Jonas1.6296111182
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