TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12309944
Played Jul 27Finished
Roman Jonas
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118113––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Jonas to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Jonas above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 52 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Roman Jonas at 54.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Roman Jonas 6–2 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:07What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jonas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Jonas
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jonas 1371 vs Chmelicek 1392
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jonas 40% vs Chmelicek 60%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jonas 40% vs Chmelicek 60%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jonas -1 · Chmelicek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jonas form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJonas 1.80 / Chmelicek 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Chmelicek)+6.0pp
TT Cup · #12309944
Jonas1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite44% won 7 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Chmelicek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 39 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back9% 5 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeJonas6wins
AwayChmelicek2wins
2 of 8 to a deciderJonas leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJonasn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChmelicek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jonas2Chmelicek6n = 8Chmelicek took 6 of 8
S2Jonas4Chmelicek4n = 8split evenly
S3Jonas5Chmelicek3n = 8Jonas took 5 of 8
S4Jonas5Chmelicek1n = 6Jonas took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricJonasChmelicekJ − CBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match39.437.2+2.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJonasChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 65 vs 174 / 36946.2%47.2%30 / 65 vs 174 / 369Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekJonas 1.80/Chmelicek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jonas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WApr 23 · 21:20R. Jonas—11117113M. Chmelicek—851161
LApr 23 · 20:05R. Jonas—9590M. Chmelicek—1111113
LApr 21 · 18:35R. Jonas—8760M. Chmelicek—1111113
WApr 9 · 21:35R. Jonas—7111411113M. Chmelicek—111312482
WApr 9 · 18:35R. Jonas—71211113M. Chmelicek—1110671
WJan 13 · 19:05R. Jonas—13812113M. Chmelicek—11111091
WJan 6 · 21:05R. Jonas—71311113M. Chmelicek—1111721
WDec 5 · 21:35R. Jonas—1011115133M. Chmelicek—126811112
R. Jonas10
WAug 25 · 21:10J. Kabelka2.108370R. Jonas1.671111113LAug 25 · 20:35M. Flesar2.2511312113R. Jonas1.579111051LAug 25 · 19:35R. Jonas2.00511891L. Vosyka1.7311411113LAug 25 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.9171211123R. Jonas1.8011109101WJul 27 · 21:20R. Jonas1.611112113M. Chmelicek2.2091030LJul 27 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.501110119113R. Jonas1.5071261152LJul 27 · 18:05J. Vidourek1.61691111113R. Jonas2.2011117582WJul 13 · 21:35M. Dvorak3.701111611112R. Jonas1.21661113133WJul 13 · 20:35R. Jonas1.671111113R. Jaros2.004920LJul 13 · 19:05J. Kabelka2.06111145113R. Jonas1.6296111182
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LJul 27 · 21:20R. Jonas1.611112113M. Chmelicek2.2091030
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M. Chmelicek
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