TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13011638
Played Aug 25Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1193111210115––
Roman Jonas
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:56 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Jonas to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Roman Jonas below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Roman Jonas at 64.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 1–1 Roman Jonas Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:56What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jonas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1414 vs Jonas 1392
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Jonas 40%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 40% vs Jonas 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +3 · Jonas -2
Flesar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jonas) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jonas form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.25 / Jonas 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Jonas)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13011638
Flesar2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 32 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Jonas1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 9 of 19
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeFlesar1wins
AwayJonas1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricFlesarJonasF − JBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match39.536.0+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarJonasBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 359 vs 32 / 7051.8%45.7%186 / 359 vs 32 / 70Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JonasFlesar 2.25/Jonas 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Jonas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WMar 4 · 22:40M. Flesar—12911113R. Jonas—1011661
LMar 4 · 21:05M. Flesar—881191R. Jonas—11116113
M. Flesar10
LSep 8 · 21:33M. Flesar2.0051111942L. Vosyka1.73119411113WSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.8331111113M. Flesar1.83118691WSep 8 · 18:35M. Flesar2.001111113J. Vidourek1.737880LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110
R. Jonas10
WAug 25 · 21:10J. Kabelka2.108370R. Jonas1.671111113LAug 25 · 19:35R. Jonas2.00511891L. Vosyka1.7311411113LAug 25 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.9171211123R. Jonas1.8011109101WJul 27 · 21:20R. Jonas1.611112113M. Chmelicek2.2091030LJul 27 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.501110119113R. Jonas1.5071261152WJul 27 · 19:35R. Jonas1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.918830LJul 27 · 18:05J. Vidourek1.61691111113R. Jonas2.2011117582WJul 13 · 21:35M. Dvorak3.701111611112R. Jonas1.21661113133WJul 13 · 20:35R. Jonas1.671111113R. Jaros2.004920LJul 13 · 19:05J. Kabelka2.06111145113R. Jonas1.6296111182
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.