TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13011562
Played Aug 25Finished
Jan Kabelka
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
71112101191210––
Roman Jonas
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:37 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeRoman Jonas to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Roman Jonas below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 82 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Roman Jonas at 59.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kabelka 5–7 Roman Jonas Jan Kabelka has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:37What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jonas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Jonas
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kabelka 1454 vs Jonas 1381
Kabelka
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kabelka 60% vs Jonas 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kabelka 60% vs Jonas 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kabelka -1 · Jonas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jonas) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKabelka 1.91 / Jonas 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jonas)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13011562
Kabelka1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 48 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Jonas1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 9 of 19
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKabelka5wins
AwayJonas5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKabelka66.7%4 of 6
AwayJonas75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kabelka6Jonas4n = 10Kabelka took 6 of 10
S2Kabelka3Jonas7n = 10Jonas took 7 of 10
S3Kabelka6Jonas4n = 10Kabelka took 6 of 10
S4Kabelka4Jonas5n = 9Jonas took 5 of 9
S5Kabelka3Jonas3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKabelkaJonasK − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.642.4−0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKabelkaJonasBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 250 vs 32 / 7149.2%45.1%123 / 250 vs 32 / 71Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JonasKabelka 1.91/Jonas 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jonas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kabelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 18:05J. Kabelka—71211123R. Jonas—11109101
WJul 27 · 20:35J. Kabelka—1110119113R. Jonas—71261152
WJul 13 · 19:05J. Kabelka—111145113R. Jonas—96111182
LJun 30 · 18:35J. Kabelka—610111192R. Jonas—111257113
WJun 4 · 18:35J. Kabelka—1151111133R. Jonas—911513112
LApr 23 · 19:05J. Kabelka—281151R. Jonas—11117113
LApr 9 · 20:35J. Kabelka—2970R. Jonas—1111113
WJan 13 · 22:35J. Kabelka—111011143R. Jonas—6125121
LJan 13 · 20:05J. Kabelka—111112332R. Jonas—551411113
LJan 6 · 22:45J. Kabelka—1110111192R. Jonas—512138113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720WSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180LSep 2 · 21:18M. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7341180LSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133LSep 2 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.8011211632M. Rojka1.91611311113LSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113
R. Jonas10
WAug 25 · 21:10J. Kabelka2.108370R. Jonas1.671111113LAug 25 · 20:35M. Flesar2.2511312113R. Jonas1.579111051LAug 25 · 19:35R. Jonas2.00511891L. Vosyka1.7311411113WJul 27 · 21:20R. Jonas1.611112113M. Chmelicek2.2091030LJul 27 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.501110119113R. Jonas1.5071261152WJul 27 · 19:35R. Jonas1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.918830LJul 27 · 18:05J. Vidourek1.61691111113R. Jonas2.2011117582WJul 13 · 21:35M. Dvorak3.701111611112R. Jonas1.21661113133WJul 13 · 20:35R. Jonas1.671111113R. Jaros2.004920LJul 13 · 19:05J. Kabelka2.06111145113R. Jonas1.6296111182
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