TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129106
Played Sep 14Finished
Tomas Krcil
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118114114––––
Miroslav Cyrus
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:01 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Miroslav Cyrus below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 49 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Tomas Krcil at 54.9%
49 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krcil 8–1 Miroslav Cyrus Miroslav Cyrus has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:01What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-1 in 9
Krcil
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1410 vs Cyrus 1329
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 40% vs Cyrus 80%
Cyrus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 30% vs Cyrus 60%
Cyrus
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil -1 · Cyrus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Krcil) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cyrus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.61 / Cyrus 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Krcil)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13129106
Krcil1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 44 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it71% 31 of 44
Cyrus2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 17 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back20% 6 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKrcil8wins
AwayCyrus1wins
1 of 9 to a deciderKrcil leads 8–1, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrcil100%5 of 5
AwayCyrus25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil5Cyrus4n = 9Krcil took 5 of 9
S2Krcil7Cyrus2n = 9Krcil took 7 of 9
S3Krcil7Cyrus2n = 9Krcil took 7 of 9
S4Krcil4Cyrus0n = 4Krcil took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKrcilCyrusK − CBasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match35.328.8+6.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilCyrusBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 277 vs 85 / 18651.3%45.7%142 / 277 vs 85 / 186Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.61/Cyrus 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 8 · 20:35T. Krcil331111113M. Cyrus227690
WApr 30 · 14:05T. Krcil4391112113M. Cyrus361171081
WApr 2 · 21:15T. Krcil4111118113M. Cyrus27761131
WApr 2 · 19:35T. Krcil331111113M. Cyrus168440
LMar 19 · 22:50T. Krcil153570M. Cyrus331111113
WMar 19 · 20:35T. Krcil331111113M. Cyrus166370
WMar 3 · 17:05T. Krcil361114113M. Cyrus2761290
WFeb 4 · 15:35T. Krcil42091111113M. Cyrus4511116892
WDec 7 · 21:35T. Krcil4281112113M. Cyrus371191071
T. Krcil10
LSep 14 · 19:05T. Krcil1.736790M. Rojka2.001111113WSep 14 · 18:05T. Krcil1.4411911113R. Jonas2.63711591LSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar1.63118711113T. Krcil2.1531111482WSep 10 · 20:35T. Krcil2.20117114113L. Vosyka1.6181161182LSep 10 · 19:05S. Kafka1.73741111113T. Krcil2.0011112782LSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670LSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113WSep 8 · 16:35D. Hons1.7311118842T. Krcil2.00461111113LSep 8 · 15:35T. Krcil2.63611521R. Fitl1.4411611113LSep 8 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50111188113T. Krcil2.5089111182
M. Cyrus10
WSep 14 · 19:35R. Jonas1.83971151M. Cyrus1.8311119113LSep 14 · 18:35M. Cyrus1.916760M. Rojka1.801111113WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771WSep 4 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.61921131M. Cyrus2.2011119113WSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230LSep 2 · 15:35M. Cyrus2.251760M. Flesar1.571111113WSep 2 · 14:05L. Vosyka1.6111611682M. Cyrus2.20511711113
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