TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129229
Played Sep 14Finished
Miroslav Cyrus
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711611––––
Matyas Rojka
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Cyrus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Cyrus above · Matyas Rojka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Miroslav Cyrus at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cyrus 3–4 Matyas Rojka Miroslav Cyrus has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 12:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rojka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrus 1341 vs Rojka 1314
Cyrus
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrus 80% vs Rojka 20%
Cyrus
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrus 60% vs Rojka 40%
Cyrus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrus +4 · Rojka -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cyrus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rojka form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrus 1.91 / Rojka 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cyrus)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13129229
Cyrus1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 17 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back20% 6 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Rojka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 23 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeCyrus3wins
AwayRojka4wins
4 of 7 to a deciderRojka leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRojka40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrus2Rojka5n = 7Rojka took 5 of 7
S2Cyrus2Rojka5n = 7Rojka took 5 of 7
S3Cyrus1Rojka6n = 7Rojka took 6 of 7
S4Cyrus4Rojka1n = 5Cyrus took 4 of 5
S5Cyrus3Rojka1n = 4Cyrus took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricCyrusRojkaC − RBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match36.943.7−6.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrusRojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 184 vs 95 / 20245.7%47%84 / 184 vs 95 / 202Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CyrusCyrus 1.91/Rojka 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cyrus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus501111314113M. Rojka49135111282
WSep 4 · 18:35M. Cyrus51811811133M. Rojka49119117112
LJun 25 · 18:05M. Cyrus4011451192M. Rojka47811116113
LJun 21 · 10:35M. Cyrus216780M. Rojka331111113
LJun 10 · 20:35M. Cyrus25101050M. Rojka351212113
LFeb 19 · 22:45M. Cyrus21112441M. Rojka4291111113
WFeb 19 · 20:05M. Cyrus50681211133M. Rojka511111108112
M. Cyrus10
WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771WSep 4 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.61921131M. Cyrus2.2011119113WSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230LSep 2 · 15:35M. Cyrus2.251760M. Flesar1.571111113WSep 2 · 14:05L. Vosyka1.6111611682M. Cyrus2.20511711113WAug 23 · 13:14R. Jaros2.3891340M. Cyrus1.531115113LAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821
M. Rojka10
LSep 9 · 17:05T. Motacek1.501111113M. Rojka2.505780LSep 9 · 16:35M. Rojka1.732740T. Motacek2.001111113LSep 9 · 15:05P. Pesout2.101311911133M. Rojka1.67156119112LSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591WSep 7 · 21:45M. Rojka2.011112113J. Martin1.6641070WSep 7 · 20:35J. Hajek1.57311111452M. Rojka2.251113612113WSep 7 · 19:35M. Rojka2.201114113T. Krcil1.6161280WSep 7 · 18:05J. Martin1.288470M. Rojka3.501111113LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282LSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133
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