TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129199
Played Sep 14Finished
Roman Jonas
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911711119511––
Miroslav Cyrus
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Cyrus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Jonas above · Miroslav Cyrus below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 74 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Miroslav Cyrus at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Roman Jonas 1–2 Miroslav Cyrus Roman Jonas has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:25What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cyrus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jonas 1370 vs Cyrus 1315
Jonas
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jonas 20% vs Cyrus 80%
Cyrus
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jonas 40% vs Cyrus 60%
Cyrus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jonas -1 · Cyrus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cyrus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cyrus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJonas 1.83 / Cyrus 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cyrus)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13129199
Jonas1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Cyrus1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJonas1wins
AwayCyrus2wins
Cyrus leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jonas1Cyrus2n = 3Cyrus took 2 of 3
S2Jonas0Cyrus3n = 3Cyrus took 3 of 3
S3Jonas1Cyrus2n = 3Cyrus took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricJonasCyrusJ − CBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match27.035.0−8.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJonasCyrusBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 73 vs 84 / 18545.2%45.4%33 / 73 vs 84 / 185Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CyrusJonas 1.83/Cyrus 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cyrus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cyrus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 10 · 21:10R. Jonas2381050M. Cyrus341112113
LJun 10 · 19:35R. Jonas166640M. Cyrus331111113
WMar 4 · 19:35R. Jonas4211515113M. Cyrus389111351
R. Jonas10
LSep 14 · 18:05T. Krcil1.4411911113R. Jonas2.63711591WAug 25 · 21:10J. Kabelka2.108370R. Jonas1.671111113LAug 25 · 20:35M. Flesar2.2511312113R. Jonas1.579111051LAug 25 · 19:35R. Jonas2.00511891L. Vosyka1.7311411113LAug 25 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.9171211123R. Jonas1.8011109101WJul 27 · 21:20R. Jonas1.611112113M. Chmelicek2.2091030LJul 27 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.501110119113R. Jonas1.5071261152WJul 27 · 19:35R. Jonas1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.918830LJul 27 · 18:05J. Vidourek1.61691111113R. Jonas2.2011117582WJul 13 · 21:35M. Dvorak3.701111611112R. Jonas1.21661113133
M. Cyrus10
LSep 14 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113M. Cyrus2.208440LSep 14 · 18:35M. Cyrus1.916760M. Rojka1.801111113WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771WSep 4 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.61921131M. Cyrus2.2011119113WSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230LSep 2 · 15:35M. Cyrus2.251760M. Flesar1.571111113WSep 2 · 14:05L. Vosyka1.6111611682M. Cyrus2.20511711113
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