TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134541
Played Sep 15Finished
Petr Pesout
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118611811115118
Tomas Krcil
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Tomas Krcil below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Krcil at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Petr Pesout 6–11 Tomas Krcil Petr Pesout has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krcil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Krcil
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1394 vs Krcil 1393
Pesout
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 40% vs Krcil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 40% vs Krcil 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout -2 · Krcil -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krcil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 2.00 / Krcil 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krcil)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13134541
Pesout2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 38 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back20% 11 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Krcil1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 46 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it72% 33 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesout2wins
AwayKrcil8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesoutn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKrcil87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesout2Krcil8n = 10Krcil took 8 of 10
S2Pesout3Krcil7n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S3Pesout8Krcil2n = 10Pesout took 8 of 10
S4Pesout2Krcil7n = 9Krcil took 7 of 9
S5Pesout1Krcil3n = 4Krcil took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesoutKrcilP − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.242.6−7.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutKrcilBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 336 vs 143 / 28046.4%51.1%156 / 336 vs 143 / 280Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilPesout 2.00/Krcil 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 3 · 10:35P. Pesout36881191T. Krcil4211119113
LJun 8 · 17:35P. Pesout32881151T. Krcil4111118113
WJun 8 · 16:35P. Pesout3911511123T. Krcil379117101
WJun 1 · 16:35P. Pesout529111110113T. Krcil4511591282
LMay 15 · 17:35P. Pesout149320T. Krcil331111113
LMay 15 · 14:05P. Pesout3891121152T. Krcil47115119113
LApr 20 · 16:35P. Pesout41311116102T. Krcil52119911123
LApr 10 · 17:10P. Pesout368711101T. Krcil4111117123
LApr 10 · 16:05P. Pesout4011111982T. Krcil46611711113
LMar 31 · 14:35P. Pesout24541141T. Krcil4211119113
P. Pesout10
LSep 15 · 14:05O. Pros1.801211143P. Pesout1.91107120LSep 13 · 13:40K. Lahodny1.5811911113P. Pesout2.20411481WSep 13 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.80911691P. Pesout1.9111911113WSep 13 · 11:35P. Pesout2.7511118133J. Jr1.405911111LSep 13 · 10:05K. Lahodny1.5361111113P. Pesout2.38117661WSep 12 · 17:04P. Pesout1.731214113R. Hruby2.00101260WSep 12 · 16:05J. Martin1.53911111102P. Pesout2.38111193123LSep 12 · 15:35R. Hruby2.63119115113P. Pesout1.4441141142LSep 12 · 14:35P. Pesout1.8086110T. Motacek1.911111133LSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971
T. Krcil10
WSep 15 · 16:05O. Pros1.809670T. Krcil1.911111113LSep 15 · 14:35T. Krcil1.83116751M. Chmelicek1.8351111113LSep 14 · 21:35M. Rojka1.731111113T. Krcil2.005290WSep 14 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113M. Cyrus2.208440LSep 14 · 19:05T. Krcil1.736790M. Rojka2.001111113WSep 14 · 18:05T. Krcil1.4411911113R. Jonas2.63711591LSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar1.63118711113T. Krcil2.1531111482WSep 10 · 20:35T. Krcil2.20117114113L. Vosyka1.6181161182LSep 10 · 19:05S. Kafka1.73741111113T. Krcil2.0011112782LSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670
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