TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119262
Played Sep 12Finished
Jirasek Martin
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111111191131012
Petr Pesout
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 10-11
Point 87 set 5, 10-11 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 61.7%
87 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jirasek Martin 2–0 Petr Pesout Petr Pesout has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Martin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Martin 1532 vs Pesout 1344
Martin
Wrong
both rated, 188 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 60% vs Pesout 20%
Martin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 60% vs Pesout 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin -1 · Pesout -4
Pesout
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Martin) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.53 / Pesout 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Martin)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13119262
Martin1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 20 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Pesout2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 38 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back20% 11 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMartin2wins
AwayPesout0wins
Martin leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMartinPesoutM − PBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match38.524.0+14.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 79 vs 152 / 32951.9%46.2%41 / 79 vs 152 / 329Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMartin 1.53/Pesout 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 8 · 11:35J. Martin43111110113P. Pesout25461231
WAug 8 · 07:35J. Martin341111123P. Pesout2349100
J. Martin10
LSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113WSep 12 · 14:05J. Martin1.4061111113R. Hruby2.75114241LSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113WSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin1.8361111113D. Hons1.83118361WSep 11 · 19:05S. Kafka1.6111117482J. Martin2.20861111113WSep 11 · 18:35R. Vosyka1.4013115862J. Martin2.751161111113WSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110WSep 11 · 16:05J. Jr2.2011511972J. Martin1.61711911113LSep 11 · 15:35O. Pros2.634111111113J. Martin1.4411137792LSep 11 · 14:35J. Martin2.10101111862L. Vosyka1.67126611113
P. Pesout10
LSep 12 · 15:35R. Hruby2.63119115113P. Pesout1.4441141142LSep 12 · 14:35P. Pesout1.8086110T. Motacek1.911111133LSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971LSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:05P. Pesout2.101311911133M. Rojka1.67156119112WSep 9 · 14:05P. Pesout2.00111112113T. Motacek1.73981481LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192
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