TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119178
Played Sep 12Finished
Radek Hruby
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114911114511114
Petr Pesout
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timePetr Pesout to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Hruby above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 81 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Petr Pesout at 64.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Radek Hruby 3–5 Petr Pesout Radek Hruby has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:20What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pesout
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Pesout
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hruby 1282 vs Pesout 1362
Pesout
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hruby 40% vs Pesout 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hruby 40% vs Pesout 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hruby -3 · Pesout -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Pesout) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHruby 2.63 / Pesout 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Pesout)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13119178
Hruby2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 18 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back36% 9 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Pesout1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 23 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHruby3wins
AwayPesout5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderPesout leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHruby40%2 of 5
AwayPesout66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hruby5Pesout3n = 8Hruby took 5 of 8
S2Hruby3Pesout5n = 8Pesout took 5 of 8
S3Hruby6Pesout2n = 8Hruby took 6 of 8
S4Hruby2Pesout4n = 6Pesout took 4 of 6
S5Hruby1Pesout3n = 4Pesout took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricHrubyPesoutH − PBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match40.535.4+5.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrubyPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 136 vs 152 / 32837.5%46.3%51 / 136 vs 152 / 328Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesoutHruby 2.63/Pesout 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Pesout · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hruby won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 30 · 14:35R. Hruby381161291P. Pesout45131110113
LJul 12 · 17:20R. Hruby4358111182P. Pesout45111157113
LJul 12 · 15:35R. Hruby48136118102P. Pesout491111411123
LMay 24 · 16:05R. Hruby4311961162P. Pesout45811114113
WMay 3 · 17:35R. Hruby331111113P. Pesout93420
WMay 3 · 16:05R. Hruby48911116113P. Pesout3111341122
LMar 15 · 18:50R. Hruby381191081P. Pesout4391112113
WMar 15 · 16:35R. Hruby331111113P. Pesout165380
R. Hruby10
LSep 12 · 14:05J. Martin1.4061111113R. Hruby2.75114241LSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113LSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113WSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113WSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123WAug 30 · 17:05R. Hruby2.10116811113R. Jaros1.6741111972WAug 30 · 16:35R. Hruby2.101111113R. Jaros1.679550LAug 30 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.3311411113R. Hruby3.25811881LAug 30 · 14:35P. Pesout1.57131110113R. Hruby2.251161291LAug 28 · 21:05R. Hruby1.538770T. Motacek2.381111113
P. Pesout10
WSep 12 · 16:05J. Martin1.53911111102P. Pesout2.38111193123LSep 12 · 14:35P. Pesout1.8086110T. Motacek1.911111133LSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971LSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:05P. Pesout2.101311911133M. Rojka1.67156119112WSep 9 · 14:05P. Pesout2.00111112113T. Motacek1.73981481LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WAug 30 · 14:35P. Pesout1.57131110113R. Hruby2.251161291
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