TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13118967
Played Sep 12Finished
Petr Pesout
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8116111113––––
Tomas Motacek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:23 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 60 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 55.3%
60 points played in total.
H2H Petr Pesout 2–2 Tomas Motacek Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:23What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pesout
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1386 vs Motacek 1382
Pesout
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 40% vs Motacek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 60% vs Motacek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout -2 · Motacek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pesout) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Motacek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 1.80 / Motacek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pesout)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13118967
Pesout1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 23 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Motacek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog67% won 8 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePesout2wins
AwayMotacek2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesout2Motacek2n = 4split evenly
S2Pesout4Motacek0n = 4Pesout took 4 of 4
S3Pesout0Motacek4n = 4Motacek took 4 of 4
S4Pesout1Motacek3n = 4Motacek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPesoutMotacekP − MBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.843.0−5.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 327 vs 14 / 2846.5%50%152 / 327 vs 14 / 28Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesoutPesout 1.80/Motacek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pesout · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 9 · 14:05P. Pesout45111112113T. Motacek39981481
LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout33611881T. Motacek4111811113
WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout45111247113T. Motacek50910111192
LAug 29 · 14:05P. Pesout28611651T. Motacek4211911113
P. Pesout10
WSep 12 · 16:05J. Martin1.53911111102P. Pesout2.38111193123LSep 12 · 15:35R. Hruby2.63119115113P. Pesout1.4441141142LSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971LSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:05P. Pesout2.101311911133M. Rojka1.67156119112WSep 9 · 14:05P. Pesout2.00111112113T. Motacek1.73981481LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192
T. Motacek10
WSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113LSep 12 · 13:35K. Lahodny1.531311113T. Motacek2.3811370WSep 12 · 12:35M. Chmelicek2.004970T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 11:35T. Motacek2.0011611652J. Jr1.73711911113LSep 12 · 10:05K. Lahodny1.731111123T. Motacek2.0085100WSep 9 · 17:05T. Motacek1.501111113M. Rojka2.505780WSep 9 · 16:35M. Rojka1.732740T. Motacek2.001111113LSep 9 · 14:05P. Pesout2.00111112113T. Motacek1.73981481WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192
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