TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134115
Played Sep 15Finished
Tomas Krcil
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115611711511––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:26 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 67 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Tomas Krcil at 60.3%
67 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krcil 19–7 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 7 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:26What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-7 in 26
Krcil
Wrong
gap of 12 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1405 vs Chmelicek 1377
Krcil
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 40% vs Chmelicek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 40% vs Chmelicek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil -1 · Chmelicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krcil) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.83 / Chmelicek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krcil)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13134115
Krcil1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Chmelicek1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrcil7wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrcil83.3%5 of 6
AwayChmelicek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil6Chmelicek4n = 10Krcil took 6 of 10
S2Krcil3Chmelicek7n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S3Krcil7Chmelicek3n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S4Krcil6Chmelicek2n = 8Krcil took 6 of 8
S5Krcil3Chmelicek1n = 4Krcil took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrcilChmelicekK − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.536.6+2.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 279 vs 231 / 49251.3%47%143 / 279 vs 231 / 492Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.83/Chmelicek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 25 · 16:05T. Krcil50118812113M. Chmelicek44611111062
WJun 17 · 20:35T. Krcil3911611113M. Chmelicek27711451
WJun 16 · 18:35T. Krcil49671411113M. Chmelicek48111112772
WJun 15 · 21:05T. Krcil331111113M. Chmelicek165560
LJun 15 · 20:35T. Krcil31671171M. Chmelicek4011117113
WJun 11 · 18:35T. Krcil331111113M. Chmelicek239950
WJun 8 · 18:35T. Krcil4211911113M. Chmelicek37911981
WJun 2 · 21:15T. Krcil42311611113M. Chmelicek4411611882
LJun 2 · 19:35T. Krcil46107111172M. Chmelicek46121166113
LMay 28 · 19:05T. Krcil30114961M. Chmelicek4181111113
T. Krcil10
LSep 15 · 15:35P. Pesout2.00116811113T. Krcil1.7381111582LSep 14 · 21:35M. Rojka1.731111113T. Krcil2.005290WSep 14 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113M. Cyrus2.208440LSep 14 · 19:05T. Krcil1.736790M. Rojka2.001111113WSep 14 · 18:05T. Krcil1.4411911113R. Jonas2.63711591LSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar1.63118711113T. Krcil2.1531111482WSep 10 · 20:35T. Krcil2.20117114113L. Vosyka1.6181161182LSep 10 · 19:05S. Kafka1.73741111113T. Krcil2.0011112782LSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670LSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 15 · 15:05O. Pros1.91611281M. Chmelicek1.8011611113WSep 13 · 13:10M. Chmelicek1.806121112113J. Jr1.91111061492LSep 13 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.80911691P. Pesout1.9111911113LSep 13 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.40115311113M. Chmelicek2.7571111752WSep 13 · 10:35J. Jr1.80911631M. Chmelicek1.9111811113LSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda1.44123911123M. Chmelicek2.601011118102WSep 13 · 08:35J. Jr1.73129481M. Chmelicek2.00101111113LSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.109860R. Vavricka1.671111113LSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480LSep 12 · 21:05M. Chmelicek7.0010870R. Pokorny1.081211113
Upcoming Matches
T. Krcil
Nothing scheduled
M. Chmelicek
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.