TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134428
Played Sep 15Finished
Ondrej Pros
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611116211811––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Pros above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 66 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Pros 6–4 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:57What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Pros
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pros 1409 vs Chmelicek 1390
Pros
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pros 60% vs Chmelicek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pros 30% vs Chmelicek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pros +1 · Chmelicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPros 1.91 / Chmelicek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmelicek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13134428
Pros1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back21% 12 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Chmelicek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite55% won 60 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it68% 48 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePros6wins
AwayChmelicek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPros leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePros100%3 of 3
AwayChmelicek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pros3Chmelicek7n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S2Pros6Chmelicek4n = 10Pros took 6 of 10
S3Pros7Chmelicek3n = 10Pros took 7 of 10
S4Pros4Chmelicek2n = 6Pros took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricProsChmelicekP − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.934.9+1.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProsChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 252 vs 232 / 49346%47.1%116 / 252 vs 232 / 493Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekPros 1.91/Chmelicek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 10:35O. Pros4111811113M. Chmelicek33711871
LJul 19 · 08:05O. Pros43111111462M. Chmelicek49138611113
WJul 17 · 17:05O. Pros3851111113M. Chmelicek30116761
LJul 17 · 16:35O. Pros205690M. Chmelicek331111113
LJul 2 · 17:10O. Pros4310914101M. Chmelicek47121112123
WJul 2 · 16:35O. Pros4571113143M. Chmelicek3911511121
WJun 25 · 15:05O. Pros331111113M. Chmelicek239590
WMay 18 · 20:35O. Pros42611311113M. Chmelicek4411511892
WApr 24 · 16:35O. Pros331111113M. Chmelicek178630
LDec 19 · 20:05O. Pros2174100M. Chmelicek341111123
O. Pros10
WSep 15 · 14:05O. Pros1.801211143P. Pesout1.91107120LSep 11 · 17:39O. Pros2.501171061L. Vosyka1.5081112113WSep 11 · 16:35L. Vosyka1.33711891O. Pros3.2511811113WSep 11 · 15:35O. Pros2.634111111113J. Martin1.4411137792LSep 11 · 14:05J. Jr1.3691111113O. Pros3.00116551LSep 8 · 13:05R. Vavricka1.531111113O. Pros2.386390LSep 8 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.5711311113O. Pros2.25711791LSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113LSep 8 · 10:05R. Fitl1.331111113O. Pros3.259770LSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 15 · 14:35T. Krcil1.83116751M. Chmelicek1.8351111113WSep 13 · 13:10M. Chmelicek1.806121112113J. Jr1.91111061492LSep 13 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.80911691P. Pesout1.9111911113LSep 13 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.40115311113M. Chmelicek2.7571111752WSep 13 · 10:35J. Jr1.80911631M. Chmelicek1.9111811113LSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda1.44123911123M. Chmelicek2.601011118102WSep 13 · 08:35J. Jr1.73129481M. Chmelicek2.00101111113LSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.109860R. Vavricka1.671111113LSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480LSep 12 · 21:05M. Chmelicek7.0010870R. Pokorny1.081211113
Upcoming Matches
O. Pros
Nothing scheduled
M. Chmelicek
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