TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13123537
Played Sep 13Finished
Jan Manhal Jr
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911118611311––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Manhal Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Manhal Jr above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 70 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Jan Manhal Jr at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jan Manhal Jr 2–2 Martin Chmelicek Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Chmelicek beat Jr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1456 vs Chmelicek 1350
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Chmelicek 20%
Jr
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Chmelicek 20%
Jr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Chmelicek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.80 / Chmelicek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13123537
Jr1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 11 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Chmelicek1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 56 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back13% 10 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJr2wins
AwayChmelicek2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Chmelicek2n = 4split evenly
S2Jr2Chmelicek2n = 4split evenly
S3Jr2Chmelicek2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricJrChmelicekJ − CBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.233.5−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 50 vs 229 / 48844%46.9%22 / 50 vs 229 / 488Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.80/Chmelicek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 13 · 08:35J. Jr33129481M. Chmelicek43101111113
WSep 12 · 13:07J. Jr45412117113M. Chmelicek41111011182
LSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr228680M. Chmelicek331111113
WJul 17 · 15:35J. Jr331111113M. Chmelicek176560
J. Jr10
LSep 13 · 11:35P. Pesout2.7511118133J. Jr1.405911111WSep 13 · 09:40J. Jr2.101112113R. Vavricka1.6721060LSep 13 · 08:35J. Jr1.73129481M. Chmelicek2.00101111113WSep 13 · 07:05R. Neterda1.8361112762J. Jr1.831151011113WSep 13 · 06:35R. Vavricka1.57101171162J. Jr2.25129116113WSep 12 · 13:07M. Chmelicek1.33111011182J. Jr3.25412117113LSep 12 · 12:05K. Lahodny2.251112163J. Jr1.57810140WSep 12 · 11:35T. Motacek2.0011611652J. Jr1.73711911113LSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113LSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 13 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.40115311113M. Chmelicek2.7571111752LSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda1.44123911123M. Chmelicek2.601011118102WSep 13 · 08:35J. Jr1.73129481M. Chmelicek2.00101111113LSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.109860R. Vavricka1.671111113LSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480LSep 12 · 21:05M. Chmelicek7.0010870R. Pokorny1.081211113LSep 12 · 20:35D. Hons1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.209690LSep 12 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.251051371K. Lahodny1.57121111113LSep 12 · 13:07M. Chmelicek1.33111011182J. Jr3.25412117113WSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Jr
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M. Chmelicek
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