TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137426
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
112511811119911
Milan Flesar
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 11–28 Milan Flesar Martin Chmelicek has won 11 of their 39 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 22:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-28 in 39
Flesar
Correct
gap of 17 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1396 vs Flesar 1449
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 60% vs Flesar 20%
Chmelicek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 50% vs Flesar 30%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -2 · Flesar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Flesar) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.83 / Flesar 1.83
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Flesar)+4.7pp
TT Cup · #13137426
Chmelicek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Flesar1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek4wins
AwayFlesar6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFlesar leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek50%2 of 4
AwayFlesar66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek4Flesar6n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek5Flesar5n = 10split evenly
S3Chmelicek4Flesar6n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S4Chmelicek4Flesar3n = 7Chmelicek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekFlesarC − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.134.5−2.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 497 vs 213 / 40647.1%52.5%234 / 497 vs 213 / 406Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarChmelicek 1.83/Flesar 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 11:05M. Chmelicek32118941M. Flesar4291111113
WAug 28 · 21:33M. Chmelicek3911116113M. Flesar31741191
LAug 28 · 20:05M. Chmelicek38111121132M. Flesar42413113113
WAug 23 · 20:35M. Chmelicek345111173M. Flesar25113831
WJul 23 · 20:05M. Chmelicek47111111143M. Flesar381376121
LJul 22 · 20:05M. Chmelicek144640M. Flesar331111113
LJul 21 · 21:33M. Chmelicek33891151M. Flesar4211119113
LJul 21 · 20:05M. Chmelicek368111071M. Flesar4011612113
LJul 18 · 11:35M. Chmelicek153660M. Flesar331111113
WJul 17 · 20:05M. Chmelicek331111113M. Flesar198740
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 16 · 10:05R. Vosyka1.44119511163M. Chmelicek2.63711115142LSep 15 · 17:40M. Chmelicek1.8376111172T. Krcil1.83111195113WSep 15 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.91114147113P. Pesout1.80811121162WSep 15 · 15:05O. Pros1.91611281M. Chmelicek1.8011611113WSep 15 · 14:35T. Krcil1.83116751M. Chmelicek1.8351111113WSep 13 · 13:10M. Chmelicek1.806121112113J. Jr1.91111061492LSep 13 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.80911691P. Pesout1.9111911113LSep 13 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.40115311113M. Chmelicek2.7571111752WSep 13 · 10:35J. Jr1.80911631M. Chmelicek1.9111811113LSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda1.44123911123M. Chmelicek2.601011118102
M. Flesar10
WSep 16 · 12:05R. Vosyka1.3611116752M. Flesar3.00761111113LSep 16 · 10:35M. Flesar2.20661181D. Hons1.6111118113WSep 15 · 21:08J. Vidourek2.106970M. Flesar1.671111113LSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar2.009111091D. Hons1.7311512113LSep 15 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5711119113M. Flesar2.25691171LSep 15 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.83127813113M. Flesar1.831011111192WSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar1.63118711113T. Krcil2.1531111482LSep 10 · 20:05S. Kafka1.531111153M. Flesar2.3895130LSep 10 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.67111197143M. Flesar2.10921111122WSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670
Upcoming Matches
M. Chmelicek
M. Flesar
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