TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134360
Played Sep 15Finished
Richard Vavricka
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119911117––
Milan Flesar
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-4
Point 66 set 4, 5-4 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 66.7%
66 points drawn · the score is 9 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Richard Vavricka 10–7 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:49What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vavricka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Vavricka
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1486 vs Flesar 1498
Flesar
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 40% vs Flesar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 50% vs Flesar 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka -2 · Flesar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vavricka) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 1.57 / Flesar 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Vavricka)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13134360
Vavricka1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 38 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Flesar2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 43 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back26% 17 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavricka7wins
AwayFlesar3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVavricka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavricka85.7%6 of 7
AwayFlesar66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka7Flesar3n = 10Vavricka took 7 of 10
S2Vavricka4Flesar6n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S3Vavricka4Flesar6n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S4Vavricka5Flesar1n = 6Vavricka took 5 of 6
S5Vavricka3Flesar1n = 4Vavricka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavrickaFlesarV − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.535.5+2.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 217 vs 213 / 40251.6%53%112 / 217 vs 213 / 402Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaVavricka 1.57/Flesar 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vavricka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 17:35R. Vavricka331111113M. Flesar248880
WAug 14 · 14:35R. Vavricka341111123M. Flesar2468100
WJun 20 · 21:40R. Vavricka511171111113M. Flesar4791113862
LJun 20 · 19:35R. Vavricka41116101132M. Flesar45511126113
WJun 13 · 21:15R. Vavricka4111811113M. Flesar33911581
WJun 13 · 18:35R. Vavricka43116411113M. Flesar3721111672
LMay 24 · 13:35R. Vavricka228770M. Flesar331111113
WMay 24 · 12:05R. Vavricka51812119113M. Flesar45111041192
WMay 16 · 18:35R. Vavricka4211119113M. Flesar34991151
LMay 7 · 18:35R. Vavricka174580M. Flesar331111113
R. Vavricka10
WSep 15 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.801511113J. Vidourek1.9113690LSep 15 · 18:05R. Vavricka2.107790D. Hons1.671111113LSep 13 · 09:40J. Jr2.101112113R. Vavricka1.6721060WSep 13 · 08:05R. Neterda1.8047111172R. Vavricka1.91111139113WSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.109860R. Vavricka1.671111113LSep 13 · 06:35R. Vavricka1.57101171162J. Jr2.25129116113WSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350WSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38117118162R. Fitl1.53711611183LSep 12 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.53111147113R. Vavricka2.3875111152
M. Flesar10
LSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar2.009111091D. Hons1.7311512113LSep 15 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.83127813113M. Flesar1.831011111192WSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar1.63118711113T. Krcil2.1531111482LSep 10 · 20:05S. Kafka1.531111153M. Flesar2.3895130LSep 10 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.67111197143M. Flesar2.10921111122WSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670LSep 9 · 21:35J. Martin1.4011119113M. Flesar2.75551181WSep 9 · 20:05M. Flesar2.0011911113J. Vidourek1.73811881WSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641LSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113
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