TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134542
Played Sep 15Finished
Jan Vidourek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12107118111311119
Milan Flesar
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Vidourek above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 103 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vidourek 8–16 Milan Flesar Jan Vidourek has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Flesar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-16 in 24
Flesar
Wrong
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vidourek 1448 vs Flesar 1489
Flesar
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vidourek 40% vs Flesar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vidourek 20% vs Flesar 50%
Flesar
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vidourek -3 · Flesar +1
Vidourek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Flesar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVidourek 1.83 / Flesar 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Flesar)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13134542
Vidourek1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Flesar1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVidourek2wins
AwayFlesar8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFlesar leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVidourekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFlesar88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vidourek1Flesar9n = 10Flesar took 9 of 10
S2Vidourek3Flesar7n = 10Flesar took 7 of 10
S3Vidourek7Flesar3n = 10Vidourek took 7 of 10
S4Vidourek1Flesar7n = 8Flesar took 7 of 8
S5Vidourek2Flesar2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVidourekFlesarV − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.941.4−4.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVidourekFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 332 vs 212 / 40151.5%52.9%171 / 332 vs 212 / 401Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarVidourek 1.83/Flesar 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vidourek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 20:05J. Vidourek35811881M. Flesar4211911113
LSep 8 · 18:35J. Vidourek237880M. Flesar331111113
LJul 15 · 21:35J. Vidourek33891151M. Flesar3811115113
LJul 15 · 20:05J. Vidourek36691381M. Flesar44111111113
LJul 12 · 21:15J. Vidourek3831211392M. Flesar481110511113
WJul 12 · 18:35J. Vidourek50811128113M. Flesar46119101152
WJul 6 · 20:05J. Vidourek521161311113M. Flesar45711111332
LJun 24 · 18:35J. Vidourek386121191M. Flesar4011144113
LJun 3 · 21:35J. Vidourek43410111172M. Flesar44111264113
LJun 3 · 20:05J. Vidourek2183100M. Flesar341111123
J. Vidourek10
LSep 15 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.801511113J. Vidourek1.9113690LSep 15 · 19:35D. Hons1.8311311113J. Vidourek1.83711751LSep 13 · 21:15L. Vosyka1.671111911123J. Vidourek2.10137115102LSep 13 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6791181172D. Hons2.10115114113LSep 13 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.61111111113J. Vidourek2.20137441WSep 13 · 18:35R. Pokorny1.4411941272J. Vidourek2.638111110113WSep 13 · 17:06K. Lahodny1.5081111882J. Vidourek2.5011361193LSep 13 · 16:35K. Lahodny1.611115113J. Vidourek2.2081370LSep 13 · 15:35J. Vidourek2.63711881R. Pokorny1.4411711113LSep 13 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5011118123J. Vidourek2.405611101
M. Flesar10
LSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar2.009111091D. Hons1.7311512113LSep 15 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5711119113M. Flesar2.25691171WSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar1.63118711113T. Krcil2.1531111482LSep 10 · 20:05S. Kafka1.531111153M. Flesar2.3895130LSep 10 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.67111197143M. Flesar2.10921111122WSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670LSep 9 · 21:35J. Martin1.4011119113M. Flesar2.75551181WSep 9 · 20:05M. Flesar2.0011911113J. Vidourek1.73811881WSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641LSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113
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