TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134530
Played Sep 15Finished
David Hons
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117311117115––
Jan Vidourek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Vidourek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Jan Vidourek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 66 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jan Vidourek at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 7–15 Jan Vidourek David Hons has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 10:07What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vidourek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-15 in 22
Vidourek
Wrong
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1636 vs Vidourek 1463
Hons
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 100% vs Vidourek 40%
Hons
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 90% vs Vidourek 30%
Hons
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +5 · Vidourek +1
Hons
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vidourek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.83 / Vidourek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hons)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13134530
Hons1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Vidourek1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons4wins
AwayVidourek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVidourek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons66.7%4 of 6
AwayVidourek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons6Vidourek4n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S2Hons4Vidourek6n = 10Vidourek took 6 of 10
S3Hons5Vidourek5n = 10split evenly
S4Hons1Vidourek3n = 4Vidourek took 3 of 4
S5Hons1Vidourek2n = 3Vidourek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsVidourekH − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.735.3−3.6per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsVidourekBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 491 vs 171 / 33350.1%51.4%246 / 491 vs 171 / 333Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.83/Vidourek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 20:35D. Hons42115114113J. Vidourek4691181172
WSep 9 · 21:05D. Hons331111113J. Vidourek259970
LSep 9 · 18:35D. Hons48141151172J. Vidourek541213117113
LSep 3 · 20:35D. Hons29115851J. Vidourek4181111113
LAug 7 · 18:35D. Hons205780J. Vidourek331111113
WJul 31 · 21:10D. Hons331111113J. Vidourek172690
LJul 31 · 18:05D. Hons219660J. Vidourek331111113
LJul 24 · 18:05D. Hons3981111272J. Vidourek50118911113
LJul 19 · 18:05D. Hons199640J. Vidourek331111113
WJul 10 · 21:15D. Hons331111113J. Vidourek215790
D. Hons10
WSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar2.009111091D. Hons1.7311512113WSep 15 · 18:05R. Vavricka2.107790D. Hons1.671111113WSep 13 · 21:45D. Hons1.8311911113R. Pokorny1.83311891WSep 13 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6791181172D. Hons2.10115114113WSep 13 · 19:35D. Hons1.6712116133R. Pokorny2.1010911111WSep 13 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.8097100D. Hons1.911111123LSep 12 · 21:34D. Hons1.836750K. Lahodny1.831111113WSep 12 · 20:35D. Hons1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.209690WSep 12 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.73811111072D. Hons2.00117512113WSep 12 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.1010119111D. Hons1.6712911133
J. Vidourek10
LSep 15 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.801511113J. Vidourek1.9113690WSep 15 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.83127813113M. Flesar1.831011111192LSep 13 · 21:15L. Vosyka1.671111911123J. Vidourek2.10137115102LSep 13 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6791181172D. Hons2.10115114113LSep 13 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.61111111113J. Vidourek2.20137441WSep 13 · 18:35R. Pokorny1.4411941272J. Vidourek2.638111110113WSep 13 · 17:06K. Lahodny1.5081111882J. Vidourek2.5011361193LSep 13 · 16:35K. Lahodny1.611115113J. Vidourek2.2081370LSep 13 · 15:35J. Vidourek2.63711881R. Pokorny1.4411711113LSep 13 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5011118123J. Vidourek2.405611101
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